[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from
central Florida to near 27N90W to 26N93W and to 20N97W. An area of
low pressure will develop Mon along the front over the NW waters.
The low will move eastward over the northern waters, dragging the
stationary portion of the front eastward as a cold front. Winds on
the N and W side of this low pressure will increase to strong,
with frequent NE gusts to gale force likely Mon afternoon and
evening within 60 nm of the middle and upper Texas coast. Rough
seas of 8 to 11 ft can also be anticipated. As the low moves into
the north-central Gulf Tue, conditions in the NW Gulf will
gradually improve.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N24W to 05N37W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 210 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for portions of waters offshore Texas Mon afternoon and
evening in association with a low pressure center.

A stationary front extends from central Florida to near 27N90W to
26N93W and to 20N97W. NW of this boundary, W of 90W in the NW
Gulf, scattered moderate convection prevails. Fresh to strong N
winds are occurring in this area of convection, with most of the
rest of the basin experiencing moderate to locally strong NE to E
winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft where the fresh to
strong winds are occurring.

For the forecast, low pressure will develop early this week along
the stationary front over the NW waters. The low will move
eastward over the northern waters, dragging the stationary portion
of the front eastward as a cold front. The low pressure center
will move E of the area by the end of the week. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of
Mexico through the early part of the week. The pressure gradient
between the area of low pressure and a strengthening ridge over
the E United States will support fresh to strong E winds and
building seas over the E Gulf through the middle of the week.
Marine conditions are expected to improve the second half of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is noted just W of the Lesser Antilles, along
64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within ahead of this
feature, S of 16N, extending to 70W. Scattered moderate convection
across much of the SW Caribbean is in association with the
eastward extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. A broad
area of low pressure is likely to form over this region of the SW
Caribbean in the few days. Gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the system drifts NE across the W and central portions of
the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the mid-latitudes
and lower pressure toward South America is leading to fresh to
strong trades across the entirety of the central and eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E wins prevail in the NW basin,
with gentle to moderate winds in the SW. These trades are leading
to significant seas across much of the basin, with waves of 7 to
10 ft common. In the NW basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean tonight. The
area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward early this
week, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong
winds through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to the central Florida coast.
Scattered moderate convection is noted behind this front, along
with fresh to locally strong NE winds and increasing seas 6 to 9
ft. Broad but weak high pressure along 29N is dominating much of
the rest of the basin. This is leading to gentle winds N of 21N
with moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. A weak surface
trough is noted from 31N35W and 26N40W, although associated
convection has dissipated this afternoon.

Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the basin, except for where winds are
lowest, closer to the aforementioned high pressure. Thus, seas
are 2 to 4 ft from 24N to 29N, W of 60W, including in the vicinity
of the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure along 29N will shift
eastward, enabling a cold front to move into the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda early this week. The front will
rapidly shift eastward over the northern waters, with fresh to
strong winds N of the front. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front N of the area by the middle of the week. This will
support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 25N and W of
70W the middle of the week, with these winds shifting to the
waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week.

$$
KONARIK
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