[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then
continues westward to 06N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N27W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between
25W and 31W and from 05N to 10N east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 28N92W
to 1017 mb low pressure near 25N95W to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail in the western Gulf
behind the front. 4-6 ft seas are within 120 nm of the coast of
Tampico, Mexico. Moderate E winds are in the Straits of Florida
with seas of 2-4 ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is
experiencing light to gentle winds generally out of the east and
2-4 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm
of the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the front will start to gradually move
southward this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early
next week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may
support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as a
result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. The latest
satellite scatterometer data indicated wind speeds may be locally
near-gale force within 60 nm of the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are
8-10 ft in the central Caribbean. Trades are fresh in the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas
are 4-7 ft in these sections of the basin.

1006 mb low pressure is analyzed near 10N77W in the SW Caribbean
along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 13N between
77W and 82W. A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis
along 87W and S of 21N, generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms W of 85W. Scattered showers are noted south of
Hispaniola and over the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will continue
to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and
the Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high
pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a
slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W and 1027 mb high
pressure centered near Madeira dominate the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Light to gentle trades are north of 20N, and gentle to
moderate trades are south of 20N. Areas of fresh winds are
between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba, including approaches to the
Windward Passage, east of the Lesser Antilles from 10N to 18N
between 53W and 60W, and south of the Canary Islands along the
coast of Africa. A surface trough is analyzed along 55W from 07N
to 12N. Strong trades are near the trough axis, with seas to 8 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
trough from 08N to 13N between 54W and 62W. Seas of 8-9 ft are
north of 25N between 37W and 45W. Seas are 4-7 ft across remaining
waters, except north of 26N and west of 63W, where seas are 2-4
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along
28N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a
cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N
of 27N and W of 70W Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will
prevail over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward
Passage, through early Sun.

$$
Mahoney
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