[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W then continues westward to near 06N23W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N23W to 07N35W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 22W
and 28W. Similar convective activity is from is from 10N to 13N
between 49W and 56W. A surface trough is in this area and runs
from 13N52W to 08N54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to
just N of Tampico, Mexico. A wide band of multilayer clouds with
embedded showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds are noted in the wake of the front by a recent
scatterometer pass. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds are ahead
of the front over the western half of the Gulf. A ridge prevails
across the east and central parts of the basin. Light to gentle
easterly winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with the
exception of moderate to fresh E winds across the Straits of
Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft W of the front and 1 to 3 ft
elsewhere, except 4 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over the Yucatan Peninsula and the
NW Caribbean where a surface trough is analyzed.

For the forecast, the western portion of the above mentioned front
will begin to move southward this weekend reaching Veracruz, Mexico.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the
western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. A
strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, a surface trough is over the NW Caribbean
with axis along 86W, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective
activity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW
Caribbean just off the coast of Nicaragua. Abundant cloudiness,
with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms, dominates the
eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. An upper-
level trough extending from Hispaniola westward to the Gulf of
Honduras supports all this activity.

Fresh to strong winds are present in the east and central Caribbean
with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate trades and 3 to 6 seas are in
the western Caribbean. Near 10N, satellite derived wind data show
the winds shift associated with the EPAC monsoon trough extending
into the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the
Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure
will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight
decrease in areal coverage of strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023
mb high located SE of Bermuda near 30N63W, and another center of
1025 mb situated NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W. Mainly
light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are observed near the coasts of Morocco and the Western
Sahara as well as near the trough located E of the Windward
Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are along the
southern periphery of the ridge, including just N of Hispaniola.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N swell are propagating across the central
Atlantic, particularly N of 28N between 42W and 55W. Seas of 6 to
8 ft dominate most of the waters E of 35W while seas of 5 to 7 ft
are noted over the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 30N will shift eastward
through the weekend. This will enable a cold front to move into
the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week.
This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters
south of 23N through the weekend, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage. Strong winds and building seas will follow the
cold front over the waters west of 70W Sun night through Tue night.

$$
GR
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