[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14.5W then curves southwestward to near 07N22W.
The ITCZ continues westward from 07N24W across 07N35W to 10N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between
the coast of Liberia and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered over the east coast of Florida
continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide.
Fair weather and slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will
shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then
expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of
S Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat
morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow
the front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico
from Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening
ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE
winds over the E Gulf on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers over
the NE Caribbean while a another mid level trough moving over
the central basin is generating scattered showers over the area.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are ongoing
basin-wide, except for strong NE winds in the Windward Passage.
Seas are slight, except moderate in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be
building tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E
winds up to fresh or strong speeds in the Windward Passage and
across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia
beginning tonight through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominate both the SW N Atlantic and the eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge in the SW N Atlantic
waters is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds S of 27N and W
of 62W, except for locally strong winds in the approaches of the
Windward Passage. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, a strong
pressure gradient against lower pressure over NW Africa continue
to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and
rough seas extending from to 15N to 31N  and east to 32W.
Otherwise, in the central subtropical waters, the tail of a cold
front extends from 31N47.5W SW to 19N57.5W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails ahead of the front to 43.5W and N of 22N.
Fresh SW winds and seas to 9 ft associated with the front cover
the region N of 29N between 41.5W and 49W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building
along 30N tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to
strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead,
strong winds and building seas should follow a cold front
expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda
on Sun and Mon.

$$
KRV
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