[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast the coast
of Liberia near 10N14W then curves southwestward to near 07N20W.
The ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 07N35W to 07N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between
the coast of Liberia and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida continue
to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide, except for
locally fresh winds across the Florida Straits. Fair weather and
slight seas remain across the gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will
shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then
expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of S
Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat
morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the
front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge
over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds over
the E Gulf on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers over the NE
Caribbean while a surface trough moving over the central basin is
generating scattered showers over the offshore waters between
Haiti and Jamaica. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds are ongoing basin-wide, except for strong NE winds in the
Windward Passage. Seas are slight, except moderate in the Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be
building tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E
winds up to fresh or strong speeds in the Windward Passage and
across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia tonight
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominate both the SW N Atlantic and the eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge in the SW N Atlantic waters
is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds S of 27N and W of 62W,
except for locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward
Passage. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, a strong pressure
gradient against lower pressure over NW Africa continue to support
a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
extending to 14N and 34W. Otherwise, in the central subtropical
waters, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N49W SW to 21N57W.
Scattered showers and tstms prevail ahead of the front to 42W and
N of 22N. Fresh SW winds and seas to 9 ft associated with the
front cover the region N of 27N between 40W and 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building
along 30N tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to
strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong
winds and building seas should follow a cold front expected to
move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun and
Mon.

$$
Ramos
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