[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070919
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1033 mb located over the Azores and lower pressures
in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to NE winds
in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are
currently peaking near 15 ft off Morocco, and forecast to peak
near 17 ft on Tue. Gale-force winds are expected to continue
through at least 08/0000 UTC with severe gusts. Winds and seas
will diminish late this week. For more details, refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Guinea near 11N16W and continues westward to 06N20W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 30W
and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1020 mb high pressure located off the western Florida Panhandle is
maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic flow and slight seas
across the Gulf, with the exception of moderate NE to E winds and
3 to 5 ft over the south-central Gulf, and moderate southerly
return flow off the Texas coast.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over north-central
Gulf will shift east of the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak
trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move across the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move off the Texas coast into the
northwest Gulf Fri. By early Sat, the front may stall from
Apalachicola, Florida to weak low pressure off the mouth of the
Rio Grande, then southward to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh
to strong winds and building seas will follow the front,
especially over the far west-central and southwest Gulf along the
coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical
moisture supports a few lingering showers off the coasts of
Honduras and Belize. Farther south, a few showers and
thunderstorms are also active off eastern Panama, along the
monsoon trough. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE winds across the
northwest Gulf, between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
aforementioned surface trough. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft
over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to
5 ft are also possible over the far southeast Caribbean, following
a trough over the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trade winds and slight seas persist.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE winds, 4 to 6 ft seas
and scattered showers across the northwest Caribbean will diminish today
as the trough weakens. High pressure north of the area will build
and shift eastward through mid week, allowing NE winds to
increase in the lee of Cuba, over the Windward Passage, and south
of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
build over the central Caribbean Fri and Sat between the high
pressure over the Atlantic, and lower pressure over the southwest
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details.

A broad upper trough is observed from near Bermuda to the Windward
Passage. The upper pattern is supporting a trio of surface
troughs moving eastward across the waters between the Bahamas,
the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Associated showers and a few
thunderstorms are active north of 22N and east of 65W. Gentle
breezes persist west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open
waters due to a component of NE swell. Farther east, the
subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered
east of the Azores. Fresh S to SW flow is note between the
troughs and the ridge, north of 22N between 45W and 55W, with 5 to
7 ft seas. Strong to gale force NE winds persist over the eastern
Atlantic east of 30W with 10 to 15 ft seas. NE swell from these
winds in excess of 8 ft are reaching as far west as 45W. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere, with combined seas of 6
to 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N between 40W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the troughs, along with associated
showers and a few thunderstorms active north of 22N and east of
65W will shift east of the area through mid week, ahead of high
pressure moving eastward along 30N from the northern Gulf to
between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, the high
pressure will continue to move to the northeast of region later in
the week, supporting fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 22N
to include the approaches to the Windward Passage Thu through Sat.
A weak cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida
by late Sat.

$$
Christensen
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