[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1033 mb located over the Azores and lower pressures
in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to NE winds
in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are
currently peaking near 15 ft off Morocco, and forecast to peak
near 17 ft on Tue. Gale-force winds are expected to continue
through at least 08/0000 UTC with severe gusts. Winds and seas
will diminish late this week. For more details, refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to 07N24W.
The ITCZ stretches from 07N24W to 07N40W and to 11N60W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 10.5N between 24W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure
located over SE Louisiana. Under the influence of this system,
light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails, with the exception
of moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these winds,
except 5 to 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are
noted elsewhere. Thick low clouds are banked up against the
Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico where light rain has been
reported.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over north-central Gulf
will shift east of the area by late Wed. Generally gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds and slight seas will be over the
Gulf through early Fri. Northeast to east winds over the far
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will begin to freshen
late on Tue. These winds will expand westward late on Sat. A cold
front is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Fri, move
into the NW Gulf offshore waters Fri afternoon, reach from
northern Florida panhandle to the north central Gulf and to near
Tampico, Mexico early on Sat and from west central Florida to
the central Gulf, where it may become stationary to low pressure
just offshore northeast Mexico by late Sun. A cold front may
extend from the low south-southeastward to the central Bay of
Campeche at that time. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
expected north of the stationary front, and fresh to strong
northwest winds are expected behind the cold front, with seas
becoming rough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical
moisture supports numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
off the coasts of Honduras and Belize. Farther south, the east
Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean through near the
Costa Rica/W Panama border and continues eastward to northern
Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on
satellite imagery over parts of Costa Rica and Panama. Similar
convective activity is near the Windward Islands. An upper-level
trough is helping to induce this convective activity.

The ridge over the Gulf of Mexico reaches the NW Caribbean and
western Cuba while the Atlantic ridge extends into the NE
Caribbean. In the middle, a weak pressure gradient prevails over
the remainder of the basin supporting gentle to moderate trade winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Over the Nw Caribbean moderate to fresh NE
winds are observed per satellite derived wind data.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms off the
coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the region
will persist through at least late Tue. High pressure building
north of the area will support fresh trade winds across the
northwest Caribbean into Tue, and fresh trade winds in the
Windward Passage starting Wed and in the eastern Caribbean
starting Thu. Trade winds are expected to increase to strong
speeds over the central Caribbean on Sat, and are likely to
change little through late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details.

A trough extends from a low pressure of 1011 mb located near
29N71W southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Another trough extends
from the same low to the southeastern Bahamas. An area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms covers the waters N of 27N between 60W
and 67W. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are associated
with this convective activity based on scatterometer data. A
diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of an upper- level trough sustains
this active weather. High pressure is building over the NW part
of the area in the wake of the troughs. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds are occurring behind the westernmost surface
trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The Atlantic ridge extends
into the western Atlantic and the NE Caribbean. This pattern
supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a strong high
pressure system over the Azores. In the northeast Atlantic, a
shear line is analyzed roughly along 25N, between 15W and 35W.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are present north of the shear line,
including the water passages of the Canary Islands. Rough seas
are present north of the shear line. Satellite-derived wind data
also depict fresh to locally strong NE winds from 15N to 23N and
east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Across the tropical
Atlantic, moderate or weaker trade winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure will slide eastward
and strengthen through Fri resulting in increasing trade winds
to the south of 24N and east of the Bahamas, including approaches
to Windward Passage, through Fri night. A cold front is expected
to move across the northern and central waters from Sat through
Sun night, followed by mostly fresh northeast to east winds.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net