[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America: Satellite data and surface
observations indicate that the low pressure system (AL97) over
the western Caribbean Sea is now located just off the coast of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The associated showers and thunderstorms
have become less organized during the past few hours, and development
of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central
America tonight or early Sunday. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Central
America during the next couple of days. This rainfall could produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain areas. For
additional information about this system, see forecast products
issued by your local meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N30W and to 10N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within about 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the SE of the United States extends a ridge
across the Gulf region while a stationary front persists across
the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel to Cozumel,
Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed in these areas and
the remainder of the SE Gulf, with 6 to 8 ft seas, highest in
the Yucatan Channel. Fresh northerly winds are also noted in the
Bay of Campeche, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf waters
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are near the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient N of a stalled front is
producing strong northeast winds and rough seas over the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida, where seas are interacting with the
Florida Current. Winds will begin to diminish early Sun as high
pressure over the region begins to shift eastward and weak through
early next week. Seas across the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida will gradually subside late tonight through Sun. Relatively
tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon well into next
week as high pressure remains over the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains
currently impacting Central America and the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted. This active weather is expected to persist
across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun.

Scattered showers are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Trades are
moderate to fresh across the basin, with locally strong winds
noted near the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft across the
basin, increasing to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel due to strong
winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the NW
coast of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken tonight. Fresh
to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the
front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean
and Yucatan Channel through Sun night. Easterly trade winds will
return to the basin on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 31N70W to 1014 mb low pressure centered
near 28N75W. A stationary front continues from the low pressure
across the Straits of Florida to Cozumel, Mexico. A secondary
front runs from a 1014 mb low pressure located N of area near
33N75W to central Florida. The most recent satellite derived
wind data show fresh to strong N winds in the wake of the
secondary front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. Upper
diffluence ahead of an upper-level trough is helping to induce
an area of showers and thunderstorms E of the Lesser Antilles,
particularly from 15N to 20N between 48W and 57W. An upper-level
low spinning near 23N32W is also generating some shower activity.
A cold front crosses the Madeira Islands and continues westward
along 31N to about 31N40W. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the
front to about 25N. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8
ft are seen over the tropical Atlantic and E of a surface trough
that extends from 22N47W to 15N48W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in N swell
are noted near the Madeira and Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken
over the northern Bahamas offshore waters through Sun, then shift
eastward as a weak trough through mid week. Fresh to strong northeast
winds and large NE swell prevail across the waters offshore of NE
Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream.
Expect winds and seas N of the front to begin to diminish late
tonight. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the
region Tue through Thu and freshen trade winds to the S of 24N.

$$
GR
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