[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A persistent stationary front
extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to
beyond the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted up to 100 nm along either side of this
boundary. Latest satellite scatterometer data suggest moderate to
fresh to strong NE to ENE winds behind the front. Recent
satellite altimeter data along with model guidance reveal 10 to 13
ft seas in large NE swell, north of 30N between 66W and 72W. Seas
range from 8 to 11 ft elsewhere behind the front. Both winds and
seas will subside further tonight. Please read the latest High
Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about
this warning.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest AL97 is
located near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, just south of
the Nicaragua-Honduras border with a central pressure of 1005 mb.
This broad disturbance is interacting with a monsoon trough from
the Eastern Pacific to generate heavy rain and scattered
thunderstorms across the west Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras and coastal areas near the Nicaragua-Honduras border.
This disturbance will gradually move westward inland across
Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week. Expect heavy rain
and strong thunderstorms to spread northwestward into nearby
Guatemala and Belize this weekend, and possible southward across
Costa Rica and Panama early next week. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
hilly terrain. Further development of this system appears unlikely
as it is already moving over land. Please refer to the local
weather services for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 14N21W.
Farther south, the ITCZ stretches from 05N21W to 10N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains across the Florida Straits and Yucatan
Channel with scattered showers evident up to 50 nm along either
side of this feature. A surface trough is analyzed along 91W from
23N-28N with no convection at this time. The pressure gradient
between a 1028 mb high over the Carolinas and lower pressures
associated with the stationary front is sustaining fresh with
locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the south-eastern
Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate with fresh NE to E
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present for the central and
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the eastern and central
Gulf will diminish tonight as high pressure over the region
slides eastward and weakens through the weekend and into early
next week. Seas to 10 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida will gradually subside through this evening. Relatively
quite marine conditions are expected from Sun well into next week
as high pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about potential heavy
rainfall across Central America related to Invest AL97.

Aside from Invest AL97, an upper-level trough extends
northeastward from an upper low near the ABC Islands to beyond the
northern Leeward Islands. Divergent winds near and south of these
features are triggering scattered showers over the southeastern
basin, including the Windward Islands and Atlantic waters just to
the east. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8
ft exist across much of the basin, except S of 13N, where gentle
to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the western tip
of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken today. Fresh to
strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front
and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean
through this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for significant swell
and rough seas in the Western Atlantic.

Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features
section, an elongated upper-level low near 22N55W is causing
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 25N between 48W and
55W. Combining with a surface trough to the southeast, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 43W and 54W.

North of 26N between 30W and the stationary front/central and
southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell exist. Farther south from 10N
to 26N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and
5 to 8 ft seas in moderate E swell dominate between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate
to fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large
northerly swell are noted north of 12N between the Africa coast
and 30W/35W. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal westerly
winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken
to a trough tonight over the northern Bahamas offshore waters.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas behind the front
will diminish today. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in
over the region well into next week.

$$
ERA
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