[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is passing through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to Florida near 28N81W, to the coastal waters of the NW part
of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the easternmost parts of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the
southeast of the cold front. Strong or faster winds are from
90W westward. Strong winds are from 28N northward from 90W
eastward. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 90W
eastward. Gale-force winds are forecast to be in the Gulf of
Mexico for the next 24 hours or so.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The cold front is forecast to be along 31N77W 22.5N78W
on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, in about 24 hours.
Expect N winds that range from 20 knots to 30 knots, with
gusts to gale-force to the NW of the cold front. Expect also
sea heights that will range from 8 feet to 13 feet from
27N northward.

Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau, to 11N15W, to 08N20W 09N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N25W, to 10N28W 07N32W 06N40W 06N50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 15N southward from 37W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force winds that are associated with the Gulf of
Mexico cold front. Rough seas are in the western two-thirds
of the part of the Gulf of Mexico that is from 90W eastward.
Rough seas cover the NW part of the area, and they lead to
very rough seas that are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Ft Myers, Florida to the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very rough
seas are noted in the wake of the front. Winds may reach
strong gale with seas building to 20 ft over the Bay of
Campeche tonight and tomorrow. The front will move southeast
of the basin by tomorrow morning. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force over the Bay of Campeche by
tomorrow evening. Winds and seas will also begin to
diminish across the NW Gulf tomorrow, and across much
of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

...INVEST-AL97...
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N70W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from Hispaniola southward between 63W and 75W.
The precipitation pattern remains disorganized. The
environmental conditions appear to be only marginally
conducive for more development during the next several
days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
by the latter part of this week. The system is forecast
to move generally westward, in the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea. This weather system has
the potential to produce heavy rains in parts of Central
America toward the end of the week.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N77W, in the
eastern half of Jamaica. A surface trough extends
northward from the low pressure center, beyond the
central Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is between Jamaica and Cuba, and in the southern
parts of the Windward Passage.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong convective precipitation,
are within 210 nm of the coast, from 80W in Panama
northwestward. The clouds and the precipitation are
around the periphery of Tropical Storm Pilar, that is
near 12N89W in the Pacific Ocean.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are
in the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 01/0000 UTC, are: 3.63 in Curacao.

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a
trough of low pressure over the east-central Caribbean Sea
remains disorganized. While environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive for further development during the
next several days, a tropical depression could form by the
latter part of this week as the system moves generally
westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are expected across
the basin through tomorrow morning. At that time, a strong
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean, reach from E Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward
Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale
NE winds and rough seas will follow the front through
Fri night before diminishing on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds that are associated with the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front.

A first surface trough extends from a 33N70W 1007 mb
low pressure center, through 31N72W, to a 1007 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N74W. The surface
trough continues through the central Bahamas, to
a 1008 mb eastern Jamaica low pressure center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A second surface trough is along 31N47W, to a 1011 mb
low pressure center that is near 24N52W, to 18N54W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 12N to 15N between 50W and 55W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
northward between 40W and 60W.

A third surface trough is along 31N23W 28N32W 20N37W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward from 43W eastward.

Moderate to rough seas are from 18N northward from 25W
eastward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the area.

A weak low is centered northeast of the NW Bahamas near
28N74W. This system will move northeastward ahead of an
approaching strong cold front. The front is expected to
enter the NW waters late tonight, reach from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move
back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning, before
dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds are
expected behind the front through Sat.

$$
mt/gr
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