[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 20W/21W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N southward between 10W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from
12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 10N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between
the 34W/35W tropical and the 47W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from
12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between the 47W tropical and the 60W/61W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from
14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 11N
between 68W and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 11N, to 07N21W. The monsoon trough continues
from 07N21W, to 05N27W 05N46W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N
southward from 60W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the areas of the tropical waves from
52W eastward, and to the southeast of the line 14N52W
27N28W 28N15W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered
moderate is from 10N northward to the southeast of the
14N52W-to-28N15W line.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers
the Gulf of Mexico. The southeastern part of an inland
Mexico surface trough reaches the coastal plains of Mexico
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A second surface
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas,
through the Straits of Florida, to 25N85W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 22N
to 26N between 84W and 87W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere. Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover
the entire area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot
from SE Louisiana toward NW Cuba. The sea heights are
reaching 2 feet elsewhere.

A mid to upper level-trough is producing numerous
thunderstorms over the south-central Gulf. This activity is
shifting eastward. A surface trough or surface low pressure
could form over the south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight
or Wed and potentially linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri.
Moderate winds are forecast in the area, but there is a chance
that the trough or low could develop fresh to strong winds later
this week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are also possible
across the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere,
over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to
moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses
along the W coast of Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong precipitation, cover the
area that is from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is covering the Gulf of
Mexico also. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the
period that ended at 30/1200 UTC, are: 0.83 in Trinidad,
0.34 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and
0.04 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 75W in
Colombia, beyond 10N in Costa Rica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward
from 74W westward.

Moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are from 70W eastward.
Moderate winds cover much of the central one-third of the
area. Fresh winds are offshore Colombia between 71W and 75W.
Gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 4 feet from 80W eastward. An exception is for sea heights
of 2 feet offshore Venezuela along 70W, and for 2 feet to
the south of Jamaica. The sea heights are ranging from
1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses
along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N, from 57W, to a 1011 mb
low pressure center that is near 32N72W. A cold front
extends from the 1011 mb low pressure center to 26N75W.
A surface trough continues from 26N75W, across the
Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, into the SE
Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. Precipitation: scattered
strong is from 28N northward between 65W and 69W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the
west of the line 31N59W 20N70W. 24-hour rainfall totals
in inches, for the period that ended at 30/1200 UTC,
are: 1.54 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.
Cyclonic moderate and
gentle winds, with some fresh winds, are from 26N
northward from 70W westward. Moderate and slower wind
speeds are elsewhere from 26N southward from 70W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N27W to 28N38W, beyond
31N43W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from
18N northward.

N of the front, winds are moderate from the NW with
6-8 ft seas. S of the front, winds are fresh from the
WSW with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh
NE winds are south of 24N between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands, where the seas are 6-8 ft.
The winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 5-7 ft
seas, from 20N southward.


A surface ridge passes through 31N14W, across the Canary
Islands, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near
28N19W, to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is
near 24N38W, to 28N59W. Broad and gentle anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is from 16N
northward from 65W eastward.



A weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions
through Thu. A broad area of low pressure is likely
to form by late this week, extending across the western Atlantic
from Florida to well south of Bermuda. Increasing winds and
building seas are likely over the waters east of the Bahamas on
Sat. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the western Atlantic by Thu.

$$
mt/ja
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