[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this
wave at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 11N, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from
03N to 10N between 32W and 37W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 11N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 09N
between 49W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 14N southward
into Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. Convection associated with
this wave is occurring inland.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
right off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 05N21W, then W
of a tropical wave from 05N23W to 05N34W, then W of another
tropical wave near 03N37W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 12W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Several troughs extend across the eastern, central, and western
Gulf. Isolated convection is noted in the central Gulf near the
trough along 90W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail across the basin with seas 1-3 ft in the western Gulf and
2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through early
next week. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form over the
western Gulf by mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern Caribbean
offshore Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scattered
thunderstorms are also occurring off the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras in addition to offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean with locally fresh winds
off the NW Venezuela coast. Light to gentle winds are noted in the
western Caribbean. Seas range 2-4 ft in the eastern basin and 1-2
ft in the western basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak pressure north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean
through mid week, with occasionally pulse to 20 kt along the
northern coast of South American and off Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deepening low pressure is off the Georgia coast with a cold
front extending off the Florida coast from 30N77W to the northern
Bahamas near 27N78W. The tail- end of the front is stationary
from 27N78W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east
of the front, impacting the Bahamas, from 22N to 31N between 69W
to 80W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring between
63W and 68W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are noted off the
Florida coast due to the low pres north of the area with seas to
near 12 ft. Seas ranging 8-11 ft extend as far south as West Palm
Beach, FL. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail
with seas 4-7 ft.

In the central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored
by a 1025 mb high pres near 33N44W. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds prevail with seas to 6 ft. Ridging also extends across the
eastern Atlantic which is keeping quiescent conditions in that
area. Winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, low pressure is centered off Georgia with a
stalling front extending southwestward from the low to off the
Upper Florida Keys. The low pressure will move well north of the
area by this evening, and the front will dissipate through Sun.
Strong westerly winds will continue through this afternoon off
northeast Florida and diminish through Sun morning. High pressure
ridging will lead to quiescent conditions late Sun through Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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