[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
01N to 11N. Estimated motion is westward at about 5 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east of the
wave to 12W and from the Equator to 08N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 01N to 08N.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W
from 01N to 12N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from
01N to 12N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave is expected to
impact French Guiana on Thu increasing the moisture and
chances for precipitation there. Presently, isolated weak
showers and thunderstorms are seen from the Equator north to 07N
and between 39W and the coast of Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ is fragmented around the tropical
waves: One segment extends 06N23W to 07N31W, the other from
07N25W to 06N46W and the other one from 06N49W to 07N58W.
All significant convection is described in the tropical wave
section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from central Florida to the Gulf
coast near Tampa, and continues southwestward to a 1008 mb low
near 26N85W. A cold front extends from the low to 27N91W, where
it becomes a stationary front to inland Texas just north of
Brownsville. The combination of this frontal boundary and a broad
upper-level trough that is over eastern part of the Gulf is
resulting in plenty of atmospheric instability resulting in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Gulf waters north of 25N and east of 88W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 25N west of 88W and over the
southeastern Gulf waters. Both ASCAT data and buoy observations
indicate gentle to moderate winds from the N-NE along with seas
of 1-3 ft over just about the entire basin, except for 3-4 ft
seas over the NE part of the Gulf.

Haze is noted over most of the central and western Gulf sections
due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Central
America.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front across the
northern Gulf will slowly move S through Fri night, followed by
moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds east of 90W through Sat
morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will generally dominate
the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to
moderate winds. Seas are presently slight, but will build to
slight to moderate through Sat with the increasing winds behind
the front. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W remains in
a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce volcanic
ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland and S of
the Bay of Campeche. Mariners should still exercise caution in
the southern Bay of Campeche in case additional, and more
northward plumes develop. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or
floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the
observation to the National Weather Service by calling
305-229-4424.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Plenty of tropical moisture combined with an upper-level trough
is supporting numerous moderate convection over just about the
entire island of Cuba, except for the west portion. Similar
activity is between Jamaica and the southwest tip of Haiti. Other
scattered moderate convection is over the northern section of
the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection moving east is over the eastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula from just north of Belize to near Cozumel.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic
and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean is supporting
moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean.
This gradient continues to be disrupted by a large scale pressure
trough across the Bahamas. As a result, winds are light to
gentle with 1-3 ft seas across the entire basin, except for
slightly higher seas of 2-4 ft north of 15N and between 68W-72W
and south of 15N east between 64W-72W and 3-5 ft seas east of
64W.

Haze is present over the northwestern Caribbean due to agricultural
fires in Central America.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help
to maintain a weak pressure gradient across the central and
western Caribbean through Thu. This will support mainly light to
gentle winds. A pre-frontal trough will move into the NW
Caribbean by Thu night, where it will stall and linger through
the end of the week, leading to a slight increase in winds and
seas there. Over the E Caribbean, the Azores High will support
gentle to moderate ESE trade winds through Sat, locally fresh
offshore northern Venezuela, then will diminish slightly for the
end of the weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is analyzed just north of the
area 32N68W. It is moving to the northeast. A trough extends
from the low south-southwestward to the central Bahamas near
24N74W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 28N to
31N between 66W and 69W. To the northwest of the trough, a
stationary front stretches from near 31W74W southwestward to
Melbourne, Florida. Increasing scattered moderate convection is
present from the northwest Bahamas, north to 30N and west of
74W. Similar activity that is also increasing in coverage is
south of the NW Bahamas to Cuba and west of 72W. Northwest of
the stationary boundary winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
with 5-7 ft seas. Southeast of the stationary front and NW of
the surface trough, winds are gentle to moderate, NW-N in
direction along with seas of 4-6 ft. Winds are southerly, fresh
to strong in speeds, east of the surface trough to near 58W and
north of 25N as depicted in the most recent ASCAT data pass.
Seas with these winds are 6-8 ft. Gentle southerly winds are
indicated by the ASCAT data pass to be south of 25N between
63W-75W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the northeast Atlantic that
extends southwestward. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds and 5-7 ft seas over the majority
of the central and eastern Atlantic south of about 20N. North of
20N and east of 40W, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain east
of the trough that extends from the 1006 mb low that is just
north of the area near 32N68W southwestward to near 24N74W this
evening. New low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to gradually move east-northeast tonight, off the
Florida peninsula and into the southwestern North Atlantic Thu
and Thu night, then across the far northwest waters through Sat
night. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to locally strong NE
winds and large NE swell across the northeast Florida offshore
waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona
Beach Fri through Sat before the low shifts to the north of the
area. NE gale-force winds are possible offshore northern Florida
Fri night.

$$
Aguirre
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