[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
332 PM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON MAWAR JUST EAST OF GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
None.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people in Guam and the Northern Marianas.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning continues for Guam and Rota. Typhoon force
winds of 74 mph or greater are occurring over Guam and could spread
to Rota later this afternoon with a slight northward shift of Mawar.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch continue for Saipan and
Tinian.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and the Northern Marianas. Please
listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect for
your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 2 PM ChST...the center of Cat 4 Typhoon Mawar was located near
latitude 13.3N...longitude 145.4E based on a 1:29 PM PGUA radar fix.
This was about 40 miles east-southeast of Guam. Storm motion was
towards the northwest at 3 mph. Storm intensity is currently 140 mph
sustained.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Mawar continues its approach towards Guam. Although its approach has
been excruciatingly slow, passage near or directly over Guam is still
favored and imminent early this evening. Its slow motion will prolong
high-impact conditions over Guam. The latest forecast from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) moves Mawar over Guam with sustained
winds of 140 mph around 5 to 7 pm.

The triple threats of Cat 4 Typhoon Mawar are, torrential rains that
may result in landslides and flash flooding, catastrophic wind, and
life-threatening storm surge. This is expected for Guam, and to a
lesser extent Rota.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should be in a fully-reinforced concrete structure,
especially on Guam.

Stay inside and away from windows. Do not venture outside when high
winds are occurring or during temporary lulls as flying debris can
easily, and suddenly, cause serious injury. If the eye passes over you
on Guam, extreme winds will suddenly cease. This is not the end of
the typhoon. REMAIN IN SHELTER as extreme winds will rapidly resume.

Have a well-charged cell phone nearby, keeping network communications
as open as possible for emergencies.

Once conditions have improved, remain in shelter until the all-clear,
COR 4, is announced from government officials.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for the latest forecasts.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 9 PM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-241400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
332 PM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
Mawar continues to wobble just east of Guam. Mawar's current
location drastically lowers the risk of significant storm surge for
southern and southeastern Guam. Catastrophic storm surge is no longer
expected for southeastern Guam around Inalahan up to Pago/Mangilao.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
It is too late to make any further attempts to secure your shutters
or other preparatory concerns. Residents should remain in shelter
within sturdy concrete homes with concrete roofs, or wherever you are.

If the eye passes overhead, DO NOT GO OUTSIDE! Extreme winds will
rapidly return. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE until the government of Guam
gives the "all clear".

Again, once conditions have improved sometime late Thursday or
Friday, remain in shelter until the all-clear, Cor 4, is given by
government officials.

&&

...Winds...
Typhoon force winds will persist into the evening and overnight
hours before easing to tropical storm conditions early Thursday
morning. Tropical storm conditions may persist through much of
Thursday.

Mawar's intense eyewall winds are just offshore. Sustained winds of
140 mph, particularly along the southern side of the system, could
sweep over Guam this evening and persist through midnight or longer.

Exposed, higher terrain of the island is likely to experience higher
winds. There is still uncertainty as to Mawar's passage over or
possibly just north of Guam. The island can expect continued westerly
typhoon force winds shifting southwest to southerly overnight. Direct
landfall over the middle of the island would see a shift of winds back
to the northeast.

Wind direction at any point on Guam is highly dependent on the
exact track of the eye. Northwest winds are likely to shift to the
west, then southwest and south overnight. This hinges on a passage
near or just north of Andersen. Typhoon force winds extend outward
from the center roughly 40 miles and much farther along the southern
portion of the system.

Mawar is likely to bring considerable damage to buildings and homes
of light material. Extensive damage to non-concrete roofs. Non-
reinforced concrete walls could be blown down. Severe damage to well-
built wooden and metal structures possible. Some reinforced hollow-
spun concrete power poles and many reinforced wooden power poles
could be downed. Large projectiles and debris are possible. Most small
and medium sized steel frame signs could be bent over or damaged.
Cars and high paneled vehicles could be overturned. Major damage to
shrubbery and trees is likely with snapped or uprooted trees and
blocked roads. Defoliation of vegetation is likely, perhaps 40-60%
defoliation. Trees may snap or become uprooted. Electricity and water
may be unavailable for days and perhaps weeks if a direct passage or
the southern eyewall moves overhead.

...Storm surge and storm tide...

West/North Coastal Areas:
Surge of 4 to 6 feet is possible. Debris is likely to be lofted onto
vulnerable coastal roads and shoreline properties. Apra Harbor may
see surge up to 4 feet.

Southeastern Guam:
The surge risk has lowered dramatically for southeastern Guam.
Catastrophic storm surge is no longer expected for southeastern Guam
around Inalahan up to Pago/Mangilao.

Severe coastal erosion is likely. Large boats could be torn from
moorings. Extensive damage is possible.

Dangerous surf persists along many coastlines due to the victory at
sea conditions. Storm surf along north and west and southwest facing
reefs will become hazardous as longer-period energy builds in
Thursday night or Friday.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam. Listen for possible flood
warnings, and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches of rain is possible the next
day or so with some areas potentially seeing up to 25 inches.
Landslides are a distinct possibility for central to southern tonight
as the southern eyewall brushes overhead. Locations that do not
normally flood may see considerable flooding. Monitor conditions for
possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ001-241400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
332 PM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
It is too late to make any further attempts to secure your shutters
or other preparatory concerns. Residents should remain in shelter
within sturdy concrete homes with concrete roofs, or wherever you are.

Again, once conditions have improved sometime late Thursday or
Friday, remain in shelter until the all-clear, Cor 4, is given by
government officials.

&&

...Winds...
Mawar has drifted a bit farther north during the day today. Strong
tropical storm force conditions may approach typhoon force levels
with a bit more of a northward shift. Wind direction is still likely
to be northeast, shifting east to southeast.

Corrugated metal and plywood may be stripped from poorly constructed
buildings and become airborne. Wooden power poles which are rotten or
not reinforced could be tilted or even broken. Poorly constructed
signs could become damaged. Banana, papaya and other similar crops
may topple.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar passes near northern Guam today. Large boats could be torn
from moorings. Moderate coastal erosion and reef damage is likely,
particularly along southeast to eastern reefs. Moderate damage is
possible.

Surf of 15 to 20 feet is expected along south and east facing reefs
tonight. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs
Friday or Saturday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Rota. Listen for possible flood
warnings for your location, and be ready to act if flooding rains
occur.

Heavy rainfall may develop tonight and continue through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches are possible with locally
higher amounts. Monitor conditions for possible flood advisories or
warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-241400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
332 PM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Shelter in place until the local governments gives the "all clear"
and conditions are raised to TCOR 4.

&&

...Winds...
East to northeast winds of 40 to 55 mph are expected this evening and
overnight. Higher winds are likely for elevated terrain such as
Capitol Hill. Typhoon conditions are looking less likely.

Power outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be
stripped from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could
be tilted. Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana,
papaya and fleshy crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge up to 3 ft above the normal high tide is expected along
south and eastern shores. Coastal erosion is possible but not
expected to be significant. There could be minor to moderate pier
damage for coastal areas exposed to the south and east. Large boats
could still be torn from moorings. Moderate damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 8 to 15 feet building to 10 to to 20 feet. Hazardous
surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs Friday as Mawar moves
west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for possible
flood warnings...and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible through Thursday with rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches. This is most likely if Mawar's outer rainbands
train overhead tonight.

$$

BPB
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