[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTPQ81 PGUM 232217
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Super Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
817 AM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON MAWAR CONTINUES A SLOW APPROACH TOWARDS GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
None.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Guam will see
the devastating impacts from Mawar.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning continues for the Guam and Rota. Damaging winds of
39 mph are occurring. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or greater are
expected later this morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch continues for Tinian and
Saipan.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and the Northern Marianas. Please
listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect for
your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 8 AM ChST...the eye of Cat 4 Typhoon Mawar (02W) was located near
latitude 12.8N...longitude 145.7E based on a PGUA radar fix. This was
about 75 miles southeast of Guam. Storm motion was towards the north-
west at 6 mph. Storm intensity is currently 140 mph.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Mawar continues its approach towards Guam. Passage very near or
directly over Guam is imminent. The latest forecast from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicates that Mawar may strengthen
slightly on approach to Guam with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph,
with gusts approaching 175 mph at landfall. This is expected to
occur over the next few hours, prior to making landfall.

The triple threats of Cat 4 Typhoon Mawar are, torrential rains that
may result in landslides and flash flooding, catastrophic wind, and
life-threatening storm surge. This is expected for Guam, with
potently catastrophic coastal flooding for southeastern and southern
portions of Guam if a southern Guam or Cocos passage is realized. A
mandatory evacuation order was initiated by the governor of Guam
yesterday. Storm surge potential is extreme, please see the storm
surge and surf info below, as a large storm surge and coastal impacts
are expected, particularly for coastal areas just north of the eye
of Typhoon Mawar on the east to southeast sides of Guam. Guam and the
CNMI are all in COR 1 by their respective governors.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All preparations for the protection of life and property should now
be complete. You should be in a fully-reinforced concrete structure,
especially on Guam.

During the storm...stay inside and away from windows. Do not venture
outside when high winds are occurring or during temporary lulls as
flying debris can easily, and suddenly, cause serious injury. If the
eye passes over you on Guam, extreme winds will suddenly cease. This
is not the end of the typhoon. REMAIN IN SHELTER as extreme winds
will rapidly resume.

Have a well-charged cell phone nearby, keeping network communications
as open as possible for emergencies.

Once conditions have improved, remain in shelter until the all-clear,
COR 4, is announced from government officials.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for the latest forecasts.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 3 PM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-240800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-
817 AM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
It is too late to make any further attempts to secure your shutters
or other preparatory concerns. Residents should remain in shelter
within sturdy concrete homes with concrete roofs, or wherever you are.

If the eye passes overhead, DO NOT GO OUTSIDE! Extreme winds will
rapidly return. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE until the government of Guam
gives the "all clear".

Again, once conditions have improved sometime late Thursday or
Friday, remain in shelter until the all-clear, Cor 4, is given by
government officials.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions...
Typhoon conditions are most likely to begin later this morning and
continue through the afternoon. Intense eyewall winds are expected
around between noontime and evening hours today.

&&

...Winds...
The latest forecast is for typhoon force winds (winds 74 mph or
greater) developing later this morning, increasing noontime and
peaking noontime to afternoon. Maximum sustained winds of 145 mph,
with gusts between 175 mph are likely within the eyewall.

Exposed, higher terrain of the island is likely to experience higher
winds. Wind direction at any point on Guam is highly dependent on the
exact track of the eye. A direct passage over the island would lead to
major typhoon force winds from a mix of directions. A passage just
south of Guam would favor major typhoon force north to northeast winds
shifting east and then southeast to south. A passage just north of
Guam would favor major typhoon force winds from the northwest to
west, then southwest. Typhoon force winds will extend outward from
the center roughly 40 miles.

Mawar is likely to bring considerable damage to buildings and homes
of light material. Extensive damage to non- concrete roofs. Non-
reinforced concrete walls could be blown down. Severe damage to well-
built wooden and metal structures possible. Some reinforced hollow-
spun concrete power poles and many reinforced wooden power poles
could be downed. Large projectiles and debris are possible. Most
small and medium sized steel frame signs could be bent over or
damaged. Some fuel storage tanks could rupture. Cars and high paneled
vehicles could be overturned. Major damage to shrubbery and trees is
likely with snapped or uprooted trees and blocked roads. Defoliation
of vegetation is likely, perhaps 50-70% defoliation.

Electricity and water may be unavailable for days and perhaps weeks
after the storm passes. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted.
Fallen trees may cut off residential areas for days to weeks.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Surge heights along any given coastal location on Guam will be highly
dependent on the exact track of Mawar.

Southeastern Guam:
The greatest concern would be if Mawar passes over southern Guam or
just south of Guam. This would bring large storm surge into
vulnerable coastal areas of Malesso, Inalahan, Ipan and Pago Bay.
Storm surge of 6 to 10 feet above the normal high tide is likely.
Surge could possibly reach to between 20 and 25 feet above normal
high tide if the worst scenario of a southern Guam or just south of
Guam eye passage occurs. Considerable coastal impacts are likely with
impassable roads due to debris and boulders.

West/North Coastal Areas:
Surge of 4 to 6 feet is possible, especially if Mawar's center
passes over or just north of Guam. Debris is likely to be lofted onto
vulnerable coastal roads and shoreline properties. Apra Harbor may
see surge up to 4 feet. Coastal roads may see debris lofted up on the
road.

Severe coastal erosion is likely. Large boats could be torn from
moorings. Extensive damage is possible.

Surf continues to build along the south and east facing reefs,
with dangerous surf of 20 to 30 feet possible late tonight into
Wednesday. Rough surf may develop along west facing reefs as early
as Thursday, with hazardous surf possible Thursday night or Friday.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. Listen for
possible flood warnings, and be ready to act if flooding rains
occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop late this morning and after noon.
Torrential rain is likely as Mawar passes near or overhead. Hourly
rainfall rates could reach 7"/hr in the eyewall. The slower forward
motion may lead to rainfall of 15 to 20 inches with locally higher
amounts. Landslides are a distinct possibility for central to southern
Guam along with overflowing streams and rivers. Monitor conditions
for possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ001-240800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Rota-
817 AM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
It is too late to make any further attempts to secure your shutters
or other preparatory concerns. Residents should remain in shelter
within sturdy concrete homes with concrete roofs, or wherever you are.

Again, once conditions have improved sometime late Thursday or
Friday, remain in shelter until the all-clear, Cor 4, is given by
government officials.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions...
Typhoon conditions may arrive this afternoon, especially if Mawar
drifts a bit farther north than the current forecast track.

...Winds...
Damaging winds (sustained winds of 39 mph or more) will arrive later
during the next few hours.

There is still a distinct possibility for typhoon force winds. The
most likely timeframe for typhoon force winds would be noontime to
5 PM today. Wind direction is still likely to be northeast,
shifting east to southeast.

Corrugated metal and plywood may be stripped from poorly constructed
buildings and become airborne. Wooden power poles which are rotten or
not reinforced could be tilted or even broken. Poorly constructed
signs could become damaged. Banana, papaya and other similar crops
could topple.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar passes closer to Guam today. Higher surge values around 5 feet
would be realized if Mawar passes closer to northern Guam. Large boats
could be torn from moorings. Moderate coastal erosion and reef damage
is likely, particularly along southeast to eastern reefs. Moderate
damage is possible.

Surf continues to build along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 15 to 20 feet expected. Hazardous surf is likely
to spread to west facing reefs Friday or Saturday as Mawar moves west
into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Rota. Listen for possible flood
warnings for your location, and be ready to act if flooding rains
occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop later this morning and continue
through Thursday. Torrential rain is quite possible as Mawar passes
to the south closer to Guam. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible with locally higher amounts. A slowing of forward speed and
drift farther north could lead to higher rainfall totals. Monitor
conditions for possible flood advisories or warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-240800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
817 AM ChST Wed May 24 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT'S TOO LATE to make any further preparations. Comply with any
evacuation orders. Shelter in place until the local governments
gives the "all clear" and conditions are raised to TCOR 4.

&&

...Winds...
East to northeast winds will become damaging around noontime with
winds in the 30 to 40 mph range with gusts to around 55 mph. Higher
winds are likely for elevated terrain such as Capitol Hill. Winds are
forecast to increase through the day as they shift to an easterly
then southeasterly direction. Typhoon conditions are still possible,
but this hinges on a northward drift with Typhoon Mawar.

Power outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be
stripped from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could
be tilted. Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana,
papaya and fleshy crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft above the normal high tide is expected along
south and eastern shores. Coastal erosion is possible but not
expected to be significant. There could be minor to moderate pier
damage for coastal areas exposed to the south and east. Large boats
could still be torn from moorings. Moderate damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply today along south and east facing reefs with
dangerous surf of 8 to 15 feet building to 15 to to 20 feet.
Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs Friday as
Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for possible
flood warnings...and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible through Thursday with rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches. This is most likely if Mawar's outer rainbands
train overhead today.

$$

BPB
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