[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTPQ81 PGUM 220512
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Typhoon Mawar (02W) Local Statement
National Weather Service TIYAN GU
312 PM ChST Mon May 22 2023

...TYPHOON MAWAR STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
None.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides important information and recommended
actions for people on Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

.Watches/Warnings...
A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect
for your area.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 1 PM ChST...the center of Typhoon Mawar (02W) was located near
latitude 9.4N...longitude 147.6E. This was about 340 miles south-
southeast of Guam. Storm motion was north-northwest at 9 miles per
hour and storm intensity was 100 mph. A sharp westward bend in the
track is expected to occur as it nears Guam and Rota. When this
westward bend occurs will really determine which islands receive the
brunt of the impacts from Mawar. There is still some uncertainty with
the overall track as Mawar approaches the Marianas.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track. The
aforementioned westward bend will be crucial to determining the
overall impacts for all the Marianas Islands. An earlier bend would
confine the greatest impacts to Guam while a delayed bend would bring
the possibility of typhoon force winds reaching up to Saipan and
Tinian. At this time, the most likely scenario is a passage near or
over Guam.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For those under a warning...now is the time to rush to completion
preparations for the protection of life and property. Evacuate if
directed to do so by local officials...or if your home is vulnerable
to high winds or flooding.

For interests at ports...docks...and marinas...urgently complete
prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations
plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat...make final
preparations for securing your craft before leaving it.

Regarding any coastal waters under a warning...small craft should
remain in port and well secured.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to
the forecast.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...
Please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your
location as further described by your local National Weather
Service office and local emergency management.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan around 9 PM...or sooner if conditions warrant.

GUZ001-MPZ001-221400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Guam-Rota-
312 PM ChST Mon May 22 2023

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
None.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For those under a warning, now is the time to rush to completion
preparations for the protection of life and property. Stay calm and
keep informed. Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued for
your area. If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a
surge zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a
designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family
or friends outside of evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
as early as possible.

If you need to make a trip to the hardware store, the grocery
store, or the gas station, do so today, Monday.

Coastal erosion is likely and there could be moderate pier damage.
Large boats could be torn from moorings. Moderate to extensive damage
is possible.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions...
The onset of tropical storm conditions could start as early as
Tuesday morning. The most likely onset of tropical storm conditions
is Tuesday evening. The onset of typhoon conditions could start as
early as Tuesday night.

...Winds...
Winds will steadily increase on Tuesday with damaging winds by
Tuesday evening and destructive winds overnight. The latest forecast
is for typhoon force winds to move in on Wednesday with sustained
winds of 120 miles per hour and gusts to 140 miles per hour. Wind
direction for any given location is highly dependent on where the
center tracks. With forecasts showing Mawar tracking near or over
Guam, winds may very well be variable while Rota is most likely to
see a wind direction from the northeast shifting east and then
southeast. If the center moves through just south of Guam, a similar
shift in the wind direction is likely for Guam.

Mawar may bring considerable damage to light material buildings.
Wooden power poles that are rotten or damaged could be broken and
other wooden poles could be tilted. Some secondary power lines could
be downed. Damage to wooden and tin roofs likely. Major damage to
shrubbery and trees could occur with some defoliation.

...Storm surge and surf information...
Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar moves overhead on Wednesday. Surge may reach up to 8 feet just
north of the center of the system. Surge may reach 2 to 4 feet along
western shores. Coastal erosion is likely and there could be
moderate pier damage. Large boats could be torn from moorings.
Moderate to extensive damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply the next day or two along south and east
facing reefs with dangerous surf of 15 to 25 feet late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by
Thursday or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam and Rota. See latest forecast
for latest information. Listen for possible flood warnings for your
location and be ready to act if flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop late tonight through the next
few days. Torrential rain is likely as Mawar passes near or overhead.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 15 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts. A slowing of forward speed could lead to much higher
rainfall totals. Monitor conditions for possible flood advisories or
warnings.

$$

MPZ002-003-221400-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Tinian-Saipan-
312 PM ChST Mon May 22 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...New Information...
None.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For those under a warning, now is the time to rush to completion
preparations for the protection of life and property. Stay calm and
keep informed. Comply with any evacuation orders that are issued for
your area. If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a
surge zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a
designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family
or friends outside of evacuation zones.

Items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and
prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries,
a battery powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra
batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal
identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies,
available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in
most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter.

Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with
shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects
indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this
as early as possible.

If you need to make a trip to the hardware store, the grocery
store, or the gas station, do so today, Monday.

Final actions to protect life and property should be completed
before conditions deteriorate. Cover windows and doors with shutters
or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose outdoor objects
inside. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors.

Comply with any evacuation orders issued for your area. If you
live in a mobile home, leave it for more substantial shelter. If
your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a surge
zone or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated
shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or
friends outside of evacuation zones.

&&

...Probability of tropical storm/typhoon conditions... The onset of
tropical storm conditions could start as early as Tuesday evening.
The most likely onset of tropical storm conditions is Tuesday night.
Although typhoon force winds are not expected, a delay in the
westward track of Mawar could bring typhoon force winds to Saipan and
Tinian. This will be monitored closely.

...Winds...
East to northeast winds will increase through the day on Tuesday,
becoming damaging by evening in the 30 to 40 mile per hour range
with higher gusts. Winds are forecast to increase further Tuesday
night and Wednesday as they shift to an easterly then southeasterly
direction.

Residents should move loose items indoors, such as garbage cans and
outdoor furniture, as they will be blown around. Isolated power
outages are possible. Corrugated metal and plywood could be stripped
from poorly constructed homes. Wooden power poles could be tilted.
Poorly constructed signs could be damaged. Banana, papaya and fleshy
crops could see damage.

...Storm surge and storm tide...
Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft above the normal high tide is expected as
Mawar passing through to the south, mainly along south and eastern
shores. Coastal erosion is possible. There could be moderate pier
damage. Large boats could be torn from moorings. Moderate to
extensive damage is possible.

Surf will build sharply the next day or two along south and east
facing reefs with dangerous surf of 8 to 16 feet late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Hazardous surf is likely to spread to west facing reefs by
Thursday or Friday as Mawar moves west into the Philippine Sea.

...Inland flooding...
A Flood Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian. Listen for
possible flood warnings for your location...and be ready to act if
flooding rains occur.

Heavy rainfall is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches through Thursday. If Mawar shifts a bit
farther north, rainfall amounts could rise considerable to between
6 and 10 inches.

$$

BPB
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