[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190420 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane
Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Corrected the date in the product heading

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W, south
of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 20W and 25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 04N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 13W and 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends across the NE Gulf with scattered
showers within 90 nm south of the trough. A weak pressure gradient
prevails across the Gulf waters, with light to gentle winds
prevailing. Seas of 1-2 ft are noted.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend, inducing light to gentle winds and
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate winds ahead of it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas of 3-5 ft are over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-2
ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient over the basin
will lead to continued gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean with light to
gentle winds and slight seas in the NW Caribbean into tonight.
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop by Fri morning
and prevail through Sat in the south-central Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will then weaken across the basin Sun
and Mon as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area
along 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N62W to 28N68W. Isolated showers
are in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by 1038 mb
high pressure centered near 44W26W. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail N of 20N and E of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere E of 60W. Light to gentle winds are noted W of 60W. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range N of 20N and E of 40W, with seas of 4-6
ft elsewhere E of 60W. W of 60W, seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge is
centered on the Azores high along 28W and extends SW to near
25N65W. High pressure to the N of the area will build modestly
across the regional waters tonight through the weekend. An
inverted trough is expected to develop along 70W Sun night and
drift E early next week.

$$
AL/Mahoney
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