[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 00N44W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
00N to 10N between 08W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergent flow is supporting a broad area
of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche with
scatterometer data showing strong to gusty winds off the coast of
Veracruz. Thunderstorms in this area are producing frequent
lightning strikes, heavy downpours and strong, gusty winds.
Outside of thunderstorms, the gradient between high pressure in
the NE Gulf and lower pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate
to fresh SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the western Gulf,
and 3-5 ft in the eastern Gulf.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering great portions of the
SW Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium to heavy
concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf, including
the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the area of convection will shift eastward
towards the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Low visibility and
rough seas are likely in the SW Gulf during this period. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight. Winds will become easterly across most of the
basin by late today into Mon as high pressure settles over the
northern Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or
8 ft in the NW Gulf through today under a persistent SE wind
flow. Winds are forecast to diminish to light to gentle speeds on
Mon and prevail through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge
extending to the northern basin and lower pressure over the SW
Caribbean supports moderate to fresh E winds across the majority
of the basin, except for locally strong winds along the coast of
Colombia, Gulf of Venezuela, the Gulf of Honduras and portions of
the SE Caribbean. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail in the lee of
Cuba. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central and E Caribbean as well as
the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering the NW Gulf, and has
been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where the latest SAB
analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke, and
visibilities likely less than 5 nm. Light smoke is also being
reported off the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through
tonight then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through
early next week. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in the
Gulf of Honduras at night through tonight with seas building to
near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and
eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon
and continue through the remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N48W to 26N56W and is
forecast to dissipate during the day today. A surface trough near
the Bahamas continues to support scattered showers and tstms
across the Islands and adjacent waters. Otherwise, the remainder
subtropical waters are under the influence of both the Bermuda and
Azores Highs, which are supporting mainly gentle to moderate E to
SE winds W of 32W and fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas
E of 32W and N of 24N. Seas of 3-6 ft are elsewhere. In the
tropics, south of 20N, winds are generally moderate to fresh W of
35W with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is forecast to reach
the north-central waters tonight and exit the area by Tue evening.
A surface trough in the area of the Bahamas will linger through
Tue, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in this
region, including the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, surface
ridging will dominate the remainder forecast period.

$$
Ramos
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