[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W to
07.5N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N25W to 05.5N44W to 03N50W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted south of 08N to the equator between 12W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Widespread convection continues this afternoon across the NW
Gulf. A line of strong thunderstorms persists along the leading
edge of an eastward moving outflow boundary, that extends from the
Texas coast at 29N95W to 25N95.5W to 22N97W. These thunderstorms
are producing frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and
strong gusty winds. This active weather will likely continue along
the south end of the outflow boundary through the evening hours.
Afternoon surface observations show moderate to fresh ESE winds
over all but the NE part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft and
likely higher across NW portions near and ahead of the
convection, and 4 to 4 ft, except in the NE Gulf, where gentle to
moderate E winds are observed with 2 to 4 ft seas.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the
western Gulf roughly W of 92W. The latest SAB analysis indicated
a medium concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations in the NW Gulf
also indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high extends a ridge westward into
the SE U.S. this afternoon, and will remain in place through Sun
before weakening considerably Sun night and Mon. Slight to moderate
seas will prevail, remaining 7 to 8 ft in the NW Gulf through Sun
under the persistent ESE wind flow. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.
Winds will veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun into
Mon as new high pressure settles over the northern Gulf, and then
diminish further Tue and Wed and the high sinks to along 26N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge
along 33N and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean supports
moderate to fresh E winds across most of the basin, except in the
lee of Cuba, where winds are gentle to locally moderate. Late
morning scatterometer data showed fresh to strong ENE winds
within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W, where
seas have built to 10 ft. Fresh winds are also observed in the
Gulf of Honduras, with seas up to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are
elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the far NW
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where
the latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of
smoke, and visibilities likely less than 5 nm.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through
tonight then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through
Mon, as the ridge to the north weakens. Fresh to strong E winds
are also forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun
night with seas building to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the
remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 26N60W to the southern
Bahamas and Cuba's N coast near 77W. Very active convection
continues near the front to the W of 71W this evening as an upper
level low across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is creating very
unstable atmospheric conditions across the Bahamas and eastern
Cuba. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are N of the front to 27N
and W of 66W, and continue to fuel the ongoing convection. A
surface trough has developed across this area, from 28N73W to
21N76W, and the stronger thunderstorms are now within 120 nm E of
this trough. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft E of the Bahamas and 3 to 5
ft to the W of the Bahamas.

In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near
the Azores and lower pressure over north Africa supports fresh
to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas N of 24N and E of 28W,
including the Canary Islands. 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell have
propagated out to 40W, remaining north of 20N. In the tropics,
south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the NE with 5-6 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will
begin to drift N and dissipate through Sun. High pressure
building over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will
shift E of the forecast area late on Sun, and yield weakening
winds across the area through Wed. A cold front is forecast to
reach the northern waters late Wed.

$$
Stripling
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