[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast
near 10N14W, then reaches southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
continues westward from 05N19W to 04N27W to 04N34W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted up to 110 nm along either side of the
ITCZ. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 07N
between 00W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 02N to 08N between 27W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across the
eastern half of the gulf while the western half of the basin
remains under the influence of broad low pressure associated with
a frontal system passing through Oklahoma and northern Texas. The
pressure gradient between both features is supporting moderate to
fresh SE winds basin-wide with seas of 3 to 7 ft, highest W of
90W. Otherwise, upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. Gusty winds
are likely in that region.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters during the next several days producing gentle to
moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow
W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
over the western Gulf tonight into Sat with seas building to 8
ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Then, winds
are forecast to veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun
as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf
through Sun under a persisting SE wind flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging associated with both the Bermuda and Azores high
extends to the northern Caribbean and support the continuation of
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the central, southwest and
northwest basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds off Colombia.
Seas are 4 to 8 ft in these regions, highest in the area of fresh
to strong winds. East of 68W, trade winds are gentle to moderate
with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected mainly at night in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Sat night.
Fresh to strong E winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Sat night with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh NE to
E winds may briefly develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the
Windward Passage Fri night. Winds are forecast to diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds Mon and prevail through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29N55W to the southern Bahamas where it
stalls and continues to central Cuba.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become
stationary from near 27N55W to near the SE Bahamas later this
morning. The front will persist on Sat and dissipate across the
waters W of 60W on Sun. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
will follow the front with seas briefly building to 8 ft over the
NE waters today. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen E of the
Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank tonight into Sat night as
high pressure off the Carolinas strengthens. The high pressure
will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast area on Sun
producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds.

$$

Ramos
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