[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning.

Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone,
Canarias near the Canary Islands. Refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N18W
to 05N30W to 05N44W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 03N to 09N between 06W and 16W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 02N to 08N between 17W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the Texas and NE Mexico offshore
waters. Gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility is likely
occurring over this area in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Over the
western half of the basin low pressure prevails while surface
ridging from the SW N Atlantic waters continues to reach the
eastern half of the basin. This pattern is supporting the
continuation of moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W and gentle
tp moderate E to SE winds E of 90W. Except for the NW gulf, seas
are 5 to 6 ft W of 90W and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds will prevail E of 90W with moderate to
fresh return flow W of 90W increasing to fresh to locally strong
during the weekend. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-
wide through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical Atlantic Ridge extends to the northern waters and
continues to sustain fresh to locally strong easterly winds and 5
to 9 ft seas at the eastern and portions of the SW Caribbean. The
strongest winds and seas are across the offshore waters between
Caracas, Venezuela and Barranquilla, Colombia. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the
southeast Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong winds are
forecast to pulse again at night Fri and Sat in the Gulf of
Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and continue through Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds may briefly develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the
Windward Passage Fri night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section about a Gale Warning issued
by Meteo-France.



For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will reach the NE
Florida offshore waters this morning and extend from near 31N63W
to the central Bahamas Thu morning before weakening over the far
eastern part of the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh
winds will precede and follow the front as it moves across the
region. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen E of the Bahamas
and in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat as high pressure
off the Carolinas strengthen.

$$
Ramos
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