[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning.

Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone,
Canarias near the Canary Islands. Refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Guinea
and Guinea-Bissau, then extends to 07N18W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from
the Equator to 07N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast and 18W.
An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N18W across 04N34W to
just east of Amapa State, Brazil at 02N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed up to 140 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves northeastward from northeast Mexico to
just south of New Orleans, Louisiana. This trough is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf. A
surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb high over the
northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen across the eastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. A thermal trough is inducing fresh to strong
NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas at the eastern Bay of Campeche,
and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE to E
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist across the Gulf
through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
pulse at the eastern Bay of Campeche and northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds will prevail east of 90W. West of 90W, moderate to fresh
return flow should become fresh to locally strong during the
weekend. Slight to moderate seas are expected for the entire Gulf
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge north of the basin near 27N continues to
sustain a fair trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Tight
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure at northwest
Colombia is generating fresh to locally strong easterly winds and
6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central and southeastern basin. Gentle
to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft are present across the north-central and northeastern basin.
Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate ENE to ESE
winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the
southeastern basin through Wed night. Winds at the Gulf of
Honduras will strengthen to between fresh and strong Wed night
through Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section about a Gale Warning issued
by Meteo-France.

A few surface troughs embedded within the trades are triggering
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Great Bahama Bank and central Bahamas, and northeast of Puerto
Rico from 21N to 26N between 54W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

An Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb high
southwest of the Azores across 31N44W to the central Florida
coast. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to
4 ft seas north of 26N between 45W and the Florida-Georgia coast.
To the south, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft exist from 20N to 26N between 45W and the Bahamas. West of both
areas, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and 5 to 7
ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present north of 20N
between 30W and 45W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale to gale-force NNE trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft
are noted north of 25N between the Morrocco-Sahara coast and 30W.
To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5 to 7 ft
seas in moderate NE swell exist from 10N to 25N between the
central African coast and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE
trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident from 05N to 20N between
30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed northerly and southerly swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will reach the
northeast Florida offshore waters on Wed, and then extend from
near 31N68W to the northwest Bahamas Thu morning before weakening
between 60W and 50W Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds
will precede and follow the front as it moves across the region.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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