[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

Meteo-France has issued Gale Warning for the marine zone,
CANARIAS near the Canary Islands. Please, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends through the northern Senegal coast to
near 14N19W. The ITCZ begins near 06N15W to 03N30W to 04N48W.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 11N
between 05W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
05N between 26W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the SW N Atlantic waters to the
central Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb high near 28N84W anchors this
ridge while low pressure across Mexico extends to the western half
of the basin. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow
W of 90W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft basin-wide, highest in the SW gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds will prevail E of 90W with moderate to
fresh return flow W of 90W likely increasing to fresh to locally
strong during the weekend. Slight to moderate seas are expected
basin-wide through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends to the northern Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW
Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central and portions of the SE Caribbean with seas of 7 to 9
ft, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere E of 79W. Gentle to
moderate trades dominate the NW basin with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the
southeast Caribbean through Wed night. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of
Honduras Wed night and continue through Sat night. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for a Gale Warning issued by
Meteo-France.

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the
Azores High surface ridge, which is supporting gentle to moderate
winds across the waters W of 35W. To the east of 35W, a tighter
pressure gradient against lower pressure over NW Africa continues
to support fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 11 ft, including
the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast today. The front will reach the NE Florida offshore
waters Wed morning and extend from near 31N68W to the northern
Bahamas Thu morning before weakening over the far eastern part of
the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will precede
and follow the front as it moves across the region.

$$
Ramos
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