[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for
the forecast zones of Agadir off the coast of Morocco, and
Canarias near the Canary Islands. Refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N14W to 02N30W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 00N to 05N between 05W and 32W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N W of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from a 1021 mb high located SW of
Bermuda covers the eastern half of the gulf and is providing
moderate to locally fresh return flow basin-wide along with seas
of 3 to 5 ft. Low pressure over central inland Mexico is
supporting heavy showers and thunderstorms across the offshore
waters of Tampico.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and into the
early morning hours through Fri night due to local effects related
to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure extending from the
western Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue through the
forecast period allowing for generally gentle to moderate E to SE
winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Slight
to moderate seas are expected basin-wide through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface riding over the SW N Atlantic waters extends to the
northern half of most of the basin while low pressure prevails
over NW Colombia. This pattern continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds over portions of the SE, SW and south-central
Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 9 ft range, highest near the
coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure N
of the area and lower pressure in NW Colombia will support fresh
to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-
central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Wed night,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds in this
region will resume Fri night. Moderate to fresh east winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed night
and continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features Section for information on a Gale Warning
for the waters E of 35W.

A 1021 mb high centered SW of Bermuda near 30N69W extends a ridge
across the SW N Atlantic waters, and supports the continuation of
moderate to fresh east winds across the Great Bahama Bank and E
of the Bahamas to 65W. A weakening stationary front extending from
31N40W to 25N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands offshore waters.
Scattered showers associated with the front are N of 24N between
44W and 57W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters,
highest E of the Bahamas. The remainder subtropical Atlantic
waters are under the influence of the surface ridging from the
Azores High. The pressure difference between the ridge and lower
pressure in NW Africa continune to support fresh to strong NE
winds to the waters between the NW Africa coast to just W of the
Cape Verde Islands near 31W. Seas in this region are in the 8 to
11 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds across the
Great Bahama Bank and E of the Bahamas will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds this evening as high pressure centered SW of
Bermuda shifts ESE while weakening. The weakening stationary
front will dissipate this evening. A cold front will move off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, reach the NE Florida offshore waters Wed
morning and extend from near 31N68W to the northern Bahamas Thu
morning. The cold front will weaken over the far eastern part of
the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will precede
and follow the front as it moves across the region.

$$
Ramos
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