[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for
the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The
forecast calls for northerly gales to 40 kt from 06/1500 to
07/1200 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 13.5N17W and extends to near 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from
06N23W to 04N35W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N51W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within about
90 nm N of the ITCZ between 25W and 34W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 06N between 25W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Carolinas extends a weak ridge SW to the
central Gulf of Mexico while generally lower pressure dominates
the Gulf waters W of 90W. A stationary front extends across SE
Louisiana and the NE Gulf. Some convective activity is near the
frontal boundary. This weather pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate return flow across the basin, except for moderate to
fresh NE to E winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula due
to a local trough. Seas are 1 to 3 ft E of 88W and 2 to 4 ft
across the remainder of the basin, except to 5 ft near the NW
coast of the Yucatan. Smoke from agricultural fires may be
covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest NESDIS SAB analysis
indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, where visibilities are likely 4-6
nm. Weather observations along the Mexican coast continue to
indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early
morning hours through Mon night due to local effects related to a
thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate
to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data reveal the presence of fresh to strong
NE to E winds over the Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and 78W,
with the strongest winds to around 30 kt off the coast of Colombia
and NW Venezuela, where seas are 8 to 12 ft, highest near the
coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail elsewhere
E of 78W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while gentle to moderate NE to
E winds are W of 78W, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft in the
lee of Cuba. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong easterly
winds are noted with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Scattered showers are thunderstorms have developed over northern
Hispaniola and regional Atlantic waters ahead of a frontal
boundary. Some shower activity is also noted N of Puerto Rico.
Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers, are moving
from the Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through
early next week. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extend across the north-central Bahamas from
23N77W to 28N77W. The pressure gradient between this trough and
high pressure across the Carolinas has induced a zone of fresh E
winds just E of the trough axis from 28N to 30N between 73W and
77W, based on a recent satellite scatterometer pass. Seas are 4
to 6 ft in this area of winds. A slowing cold front extends from
31N50W to 25N60W where it stalls and continues to near the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Some shower activity is noted along and ahead
the front. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas 8 to 12 ft in
NW swell are behind the front in the waters N of 29N W of the
front to about 66W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the
waters elsewhere W of 70W. The remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of ridge from a 1026
mb high pressure located south of the Azore Islands near 32N28W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW
Africa is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 14N
and E of 30W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data.
Elsewhere across the trade wind belt, fresh NE winds generally
prevail S of 20N, with seas of 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough across the Bahamas will
drift W today, with a band of fresh to strong E winds to the N
and NE of it shifting westward into the NW Bahamas and the
central Florida coastal waters. The cold front will drift SE,
reaching from 25N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by
this evening while weakening. NW swell with seas in the 8 to 12 ft
range will follow the front N of 28N and E of 65W through late
today. High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the
wake of the front will bring a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate early next week.

$$
GR
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