[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo France has issued a gale warning for the adjacent waters of
Agadir, Africa this afternoon. Gale conditions are forecast to
continue through Sat evening. For more information visit
www.meteofrance.com

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and extends to near 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W to 04N31W, then resumes near 04N36W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 08W and 17W,
and from 0N to 10N between 20W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored off the Carolinas extends a ridge SW
across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico while generally
lower pressure dominates the gulf waters W of 90W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate return flow across the basin, except
for moderate to fresh NE to E winds off the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. Smoke from agricultural
fires may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest SAB
analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations
along the coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze.
Observations over the NW Gulf indicate hazy conditions as well.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early
morning hours through Wed night due to local effects related to a
thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate
to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the southeast, south-
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean, with the
strongest winds off the coast of Colombia where seas are 8 to 9
ft. Across the remainder eastern, central and southwest Caribbean,
trade winds are generally moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to
7 ft range. Fresh to strong E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Honduras with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through
early next week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong offshore
northern Honduras, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are expected at night in the Windward Passage Sat night through
Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak low is near 27.5N76W along with a surface trough extending
to the central Bahamas. A slowing cold front extends from 30N55W
to near the Turks and Caicos Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low near 27.5N76W will drift SW
through Sat with a surge of fresh to strong winds in its wake.
The cold front will drift SE, reaching from 24N55W to the N coast
of Hispaniola near 20N71W by Sat evening while weakening. NW
swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will follow the front N of
28N and E of 65W through Sat. Otherwise, high press will follow
the front, and dominate most of region through early next week,
producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate early next week.

$$

Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net