[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
southern Senegal near Banjul, then continues southwestward to
near 12N18W. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon
trough. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 12N18W across
04.5N30W to just north of Belem, Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted up to 150 nm along either side of
the ITCZ between 26W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1017 mb
high over the northeastern Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are found across the eastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are present at the
north-central and western Gulf, including the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft prevail at the south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Both GeoColor satellite imagery and coastal
observations reveal moderate smoke/haze caused by agricultural
fires has created reduced visibility across the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf for the
remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into
the early morning hours through early next week, due to local
effects related to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Mid-Atlantic ridge north of the area near 22N continues to
maintain a fair trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the
south-central basin, north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at
the eastern and north-central basin, and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle
to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Mid-Atlantic ridge will combined with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central and southeastern Caribbean through Mon night, with
seas building to 10 ft during the weekend. Easterly winds will
also pulse to betwen fresh and strong nightly in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night,
briefly increasing to strong Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N60W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 250 nm
southeast of this feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered showers over the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted behind the cold front
north of 25N between the cold front and 70W. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong southerly winds are found east of the front,
north of 27N between 52W and the front. Seas in both areas range
from 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate NW to N to
NE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are found farther west of the front
north of 25N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. A Mid-
Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb high near
29N34W across 24N50W to the southeast Bahamas. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell are
present up to 260 nm along either side of the ridge axis. Moderate
to fresh NNE to NE trades with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, north of 14N between the
African coast and 30W, and farther southwest from 03N to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to
propagate southeastward, reaching from 31N56W to the southeast
Bahamas by Fri morning. The tail of this front is forecast to
briefly stall in the Turks and Caicos Fri night and then progress
eastward again on Sat, reaching Hispaniola Sat night through Sun.
Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas near the front should
persist north of 28N through this evening. In the wake of the
front, weak high pressure will rebuild over the southeastern US,
bringing light winds to the far western Atlantic through Fri.
Looking ahead, a weak low pressure may develop off the
southeastern US by Sun.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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