[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 05N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Clusters of
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 04N to 09N
between 10W and 17W, and from the Equator to 02N between 43W and
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1015
mb high pressure located over the eastern Gulf near 27N85W. A
surface trough is located just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent
scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh NE winds
ahead of the trough axis to about 93W. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are over the NW Gulf while gentle to moderate W to NW are
over the far NE Gulf. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the western half of the Gulf
and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern half. Smoke from agricultural
fires may be covering portions of the SW Gulf. Latest SAB analysis
indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations along the
coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during the
forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10
ft near the coast of Colombia. Similar wind speeds are near the
ABC Islands, and also the across the islands N of Venezuela,
particularly S of 14N between 64W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trade
winds dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean,
where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, gentle
to moderate winds are noted, with seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras, and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere.

Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, extend from HOnduras
across the NW Caribbean and eastern Cuba into the the Bahamas.
This cloudiness is associated with strong SW winds aloft ahead of
an upper-level trough that extends from western Cuba into the
Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the
trade wind flow, are moving from the Atlantic across the Lesser
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. A persistent mid to upper level
anticyclone, now located over Venezuela, supports dry conditions
over northern Venezuela and northern Guyana.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the week, with rough seas building
to 11 or 12 ft during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage beginning Fri night. Winds will
also pulse to fresh to locally strong nightly in the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from near Bermuda to
South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the
front mainly N of 28N with seas of 8 to 11 ft W of the front based
on altimeter data. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N64W
to 24N73W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the
trough, and additional convective activity is now developing
ahead of the trough axis N of 29N W of 58W. To the east, another
surface trough extends from 22N51W to 15N56W. Patches of low
clouds with possible showers are associated with this trough. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a 1025 mb high pressure located near 28N32W. Light and variable
winds are near the high center. An area of fresh NE winds is noted
along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge just W of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within these winds.
mainly moderate trades dominate the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to propagate across the waters
E of 50W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue
to propagate SE, reaching from 31N58W to the central Bahamas this
evening, and from 31N52W to the easternmost tip of Cuba by Fri
evening. Fresh to strong winds are occurring on either side of the
boundary mainly N of 28N with seas of 8 to 11 ft. These marine
conditions will persist today as the front continues to moves SE
over the forecast waters. In the wake of the front, weak high
pressure will rebuild over the SE US, bringing light winds to the
far western Atlantic later today. Looking ahead, a weak low
pressure may develop off the SE US by Sun.

$$
GR
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