[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031843
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, then continues SW to near 07N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 02N30W to 01N40W and to 01S47W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south
of the ITCZ from 02N to 07N between 15W and 23W. Similar
convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 01S to 04N between
42W and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

With the assistance of a mid to upper level jet, the front that
was dissipating across the northern Gulf waters has reformed as
a cold front, stretching from just north of Tampa Bay to New
Orleans, Louisiana. Recent buoy observations report moderate to
fresh N-NE winds following the boundary. No significant
precipitation is associated with the front. Elsewhere, a surface
trough extends from the central Gulf near 25N90W to the southern
Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Moderate E-SE winds are east of the
axis, and moderate N winds, shifting to NW in the southern Bay
of Campeche are on the west side of the axis. Moisture pulled
from a subtropical jet supports an area of showers and thunderstorms
from 25N to 29N between 87W and 95W. Mainly 2 to 4 ft seas are
over the entire basin.

The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of
smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche due
to agricultural fires. Some observations adjacent to the coast
of Mexico are reporting hazy conditions and visibility of 3 to 5
nm. Mariners navigating in these waters should use caution due
to smoke reducing visibility.

For the forecast, the new cold front across the NE Gulf will
progress south through Thu morning, though marine impacts will be
limited. The main feature remains high pressure producing mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception is near the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
nocturnal thermal trough will develop and cause fresh to strong
winds near and NW of the Peninsula each night through the forecast
period.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate
the remainder of the central Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Similar wind speeds are observed in the NW Caribbean, south of 18N
with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds prevail with seas below 3 ft.

A subtropical jet is supporting multilayer clouds, with possible
showers, extending across the  NW Caribbean into west-central
Cuba and the Bahamas. A persistent mid to upper level
anticyclone, now located over NW Venezuela, supports dry
conditions over most of the central and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the week, with rough seas
building to 12 ft during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh
E winds are expected S of Hispaniola. Winds will also pulse to
fresh nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of weak cold fronts are drifting over the SW Atlantic.
The leading front stretches from 31N70W to the Bahamas near
25W77W. Fresh to strong W-NW winds cover the area behind this
boundary to the coast of Florida, with the strongest winds north
of 29N. Seas are reaching above 8 ft in the area of strong winds.
Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front north of 26N and
west of 65W. Moderate S-SW winds are elsewhere west of 55W.
Although no significant convection is associated with the fronts,
a subtropical jet is supporting multilayer clouds along with
showers and thunderstorms, extending across the NW Caribbean to
the Bahamas .

A high pressure centered near 27N36W extends a ridge to the
Turks and Caicos. Gentle to moderate E winds are along the
southside of the ridge, noted from 20N to 25N between 25W and
55W. Moderate W winds are north of the high between 40W and 25W.
8 to 10 ft seas in N-NW swell continues to propagate across seas
north of 22N between 23W and 45W. South of 20N, and east of 50W,
NE winds increase to moderate to fresh breezes. Locally strong
winds were noted in observations from this morning around the
Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pair of cold fronts in the
western Atlantic will merge and continue to progress east today.
By Thu morning, the front will stretch from 31N62W to south
Florida near 25N80W. By Fri morning, the front will stretch from
31N54W the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas are forecast north of 27N on both sides of the
front through Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front, bringing light winds to the far western Atlantic by Thu.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net