[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from
04N24W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 24W, and from the Equator
to 03N between 42W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front remains over the NE Gulf waters. A
few showers are associated with the frontal boundary. A surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region while a surface
trough is located just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh easterly winds
related to this trough, covering the waters just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula to about 24N between 87W and 91W. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across the remainder of the
eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3 to
5 ft range over the western Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires
may be covering portions of the SW Gulf. Latest SAB analysis
indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the above mentioned weakening stationary front
will dissipate today. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas. Near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula, expect pulsing fresh to locally strong winds
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects
induced by a thermal trough. This will persist most of the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate
the remainder of the central Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Similar wind speeds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras with seas
in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail
with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except over the western Caribbean, where
seas are 2 to 3 ft.

Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, extend from Guatemala
and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula across the NW Caribbean into
west-central Cuba and the Bahamas. This cloudiness is associated
with strong SW winds aloft. Patches of low level clouds, embedded
in the trade wind flow, are moving from the Atlantic across the
Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. A persistent mid to upper level
anticyclone, now located over NW Venezuela, supports dry conditions
over most of Venezuela and northern Colombia as well as over the
central Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the week, with seas building up to
11 or 12 ft during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh E winds
are expected S of Hispaniola. Winds will also pulse to fresh
nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral,
FL. Showers and thunderstorms are developing N of the front,
particularly N of 30N between 70W and 77W. Fresh to strong SW to
W winds are noted N of 30N between 66W and 81W per scatterometer
data. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. A cold front crosses
the Canary Islands generating some shower activity. The rest of
the Atlantic is dominated by a 1020 mb high pressure located near
27N43W. This system extends a ridge toward the SE Bahamas where
light to gentle winds prevail. An area of fresh NE winds persists
from 18N to 22N between 45W and 51W. These winds are likely
associated with the remnants of a shear line previously located in
this region. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
dominate the tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to
propagate across the waters E of 50W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft N of
26N based on an altimeter pass.

For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing push of cold air will
allow the stationary front to move across the N waters today. The
cold front will reach from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas this evening,
from 31N58W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening, and from 31N52W
to the SE Bahamas by Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are forecast on either side of the front through Thu. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing light winds
to the far western Atlantic by Thu.

$$
GR
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