[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front and a pre-frontal
trough are from 300 nm to 330 nm to the east of Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 240 nm to the east of the pre-frontal trough.
Expect SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from
9 feet to 14 feet, from 30N to 31N between 71W and 74W. The
gale-force winds are forecast to be slowing down, to less
than gale-force, during the next few hours. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 12 feet from the NW Bahamas northward
from the cold front westward. The sea heights range from
1 foot to 3 feet in the Bahamas.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N22W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to 01S35W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 24N95W in the west
central Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the entire area. The sea heights range from
8 feet to 12 feet in the east central Gulf of Mexico.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere
from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 5 feet
to 6 feet from the coastal waters of the western Yucatan
Peninsula into the central Gulf. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere in the SW corner of the
area. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in
the NW corner. Strong W to SW winds are within 90 nm of
the coast of Florida from the Florida Panhandle eastward.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest
of the area.

Strong winds in the northeastern Gulf will diminish
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front,
and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed.
Fresh winds will pulse across the Bay of Campeche each
night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel Smoke: Areas of smoke
cover the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 82W
westward, and Central America from the northern half
of Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. It is possible that the visibility in these
regions may be 3 nm or less. Mariners are urged to
exercise caution if they are traversing this area.
These conditions are expected to continue for the next
few of days. Please, read the Offshore Waters Forecast,
that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html,
for more information.

A cold front and a pre-frontal trough cut across NW Cuba,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate
to some fresh northerly winds are to the west and northwest
of the front and trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 75 nm to the east of the pre-frontal
trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong also covers
the inland areas and the coastal waters from Panama to
Honduras. The sea heights in the NW corner of the area are
ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet.

Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the southern half of
the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate SE winds
are in the rest of the central one-third of the area. Moderate
E winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Gentle winds
are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 4 feet, generally, from 80W eastward. Some isolated
heights of 6 feet are just to the north of Lake Maracaibo, and
5 feet are off the coast of north central Venezuela. The sea
heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the SW corner of the area.

A cold front over the NW Caribbean, will slow and and dissipate
over the NW Caribbean by Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
offshore of Colombia Mon night and continue through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warning for Gale-Force Winds covers parts of the Western
Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the Special Features section for
more information.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N26W to
25N36W, to 20N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from the front northward between 26W and
38W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated
moderate is from 19N northward between 20W and 60W. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from the cold front
northward between 30W and 40W, and the range is from 6 feet
to 7 feet from 20N northward between 40W and 50W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through 31N20W, to a 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 26N28W, to 17N49W, to the east
of the cold front.

Strong N winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Africa from
the Canary Islands northward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
from the 31N20W-to-17N49W surface ridge southeastward. Gentle
winds are from 330 nm to 420 nm to the SE of the 31N26W-to-
20N49W cold front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere,
from 20N northward from 70W eastward.

A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to W Cuba. Strong to
gale-force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front to
the N of 28N and W of 70W through this evening. The front will
then gradually weaken and dissipate on Tue. The next front, weaker
in intensity, may move across the northern waters by mid- week.

$$
MT/al
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