[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a
surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures
over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale
force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through
Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 14 ft each night
under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A strengthening low pressure system
at the north-central Atlantic will produce gale to storm-force
winds for the next few days north of our area. Large NW to N
swell generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east
of 60W starting Sat morning. This will cause combined seas to
build and peak between 14 and 16 ft north of 28N, and 11 to 13 ft
seas reaching as far south as 20N Sat afternoon through Mon
afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Guinea coast near
Conakry to near 08N16W. No significant convection is present near
this trough. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 08N16W across
EQ32W to just north of Belem, Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ west
of 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Mainly moderate southerly return flow
dominates the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
found across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and
Straits of Florida. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft with the higher end
being north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will shift eastward ahead of
a weakening cold front which should enter the northern Gulf over
the weekend. This will cause diminishing winds and seas across the
Gulf through Sun. Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward
across the Gulf again early next week, introducing fresh to
strong winds over the central and western Gulf. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will persist
through midweek next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A relatively fair easterly trade-wind regime continues across the
entire basin. Convergent trades are causing scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms over Hispaniola and western Cuba. Recent
satellite scatterometer data reveal strong to near-gale NE to ENE
winds at the south-central basin, seas range from 8 to 10 ft
based on model guidance. Mostly fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate E
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northwestern basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure centered offshore of the Carolinas and low pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to strong
across the Windward Passage through Sat evening, and in the Gulf
of Honduras every night through midweek next week. Seas will
build to near 10 ft in mixed N and E swell this weekend across
the Tropical North Atlantic, then slowly subside through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from southwest of the Azores
across 31N45W to just northeast of the southeast Bahamas.
Scattered showers are occurring along and up to 80 nm southeast of
this feature. Two modest trade-wind disturbances are producing
patchy showers just east of the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 20N
between 46W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong N to E to SE winds with 6
to 10 ft seas are present behind the front between 50W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward
from a 1029 mb high north of the Canary Islands across 31N30W to
near the southeast Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft in moderate N swell exist up to 200 nm along either side to
the ridge axis. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NE to
ENE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident north of 20N between
the northwest African coast and 32W. Farther southwest, gentle to
moderate NNE to ENE trades with 6 to 7 ft seas are noted from 04N
to 20N between 32W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mix moderate N and S swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly
southeastward this evening, and reach along 22N-23N tonight before
weakens and dissipates Sat. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of the front is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds north
of the front and east of the NW Bahamas, and will begin to
diminish W of 65W late tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds will
develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida tonight in
advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the
southeastern U.S. Sat night. This cold front will move southeast,
become stationary from near 31N60W to the northwest Bahamas by
Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. The fresh to strong
SW winds ahead of the front will shift eastward across the waters
north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N
Sun night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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