[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central
Caribbean through the remainder of the week and over the
weekend. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-
force late night and early morning starting this evening through
Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft with the
strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to
05N17W to 00N19W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 04S30W to 02S42W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and tstms are noted
from 01N to 08N between 08W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 25N85W where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues to 26N95W and
then south to the western Bay of Campeche. Middle to upper level
diffluent flow supports scattered showers in the NE Gulf waters
where winds are gentle to moderate and from the NNE. Over the NW
gulf waters, N of the stationary front, a tighter pressure
gradient supports fresh to strong easterlies. Winds in the
southern half of the basin and S of the frontal boundary are
mainly gentle to locally moderate from the NNE, except for fresh
winds along the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from
extreme southern Florida to 25N90W and to the central Bay of
Campeche this evening, and dissipate over the far southeastern
Gulf Thu. Fresh to strong east winds north of the stationary front
will become fresh southeast winds late tonight as the stationary
front begins to weakens. These winds will expand eastward through
Fri as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States,
then weaken over the weekend and re-develop Mon and Mon night.
Fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will
change little into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Surface ridging across the central Atlantic extending SW to the
northern Caribbean combined with lower pressure over NW Colombia
is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades over the eastern, central
and SW Caribbean with strong to near gale-force NE winds offshore
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Deep layer dry air continue to
hinder the development of deep convection across the region.
Recent altimeter data show seas of 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean
and 2-4 ft in the NW basin. Across the south-central basin or area
of strongest winds, seas are in the 7-9 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the rest of
the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each
night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North
Atlantic this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near 31N67W to Boca
Raton, Florida. Scattered showers are ahead of the front N of 27N
between 55W and 70W. Winds in the wake of the front and N of 27N are
moderate to locally fresh from the NNW while winds ahead of the
front are mainly fresh from the WSW. Seas W of 55W are in the 4 to
6 ft range in primarily NE swell.

In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward
through Fri, at which time it will reach to along 22N/23N. It will
weaken and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas
are forecast north of 29N in the vicinity of the front tonight,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the
front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong
northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night.
Winds diminish Sat as fresh to strong southwest winds develop over
the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next
cold front. This cold front is expected to reach from near 31N77W
to West Palm Beach, Florida late Sat night, weaken as it reaches
from near 31N69W to 27N73W, and continue as a weakening stationary
front to South Florida by late Sun and from near 31N59W to 26N73W
by late Mon. The strong southwest winds are forecast to lift
north of the area Sun.

$$
Ramos

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