[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central
Caribbean through the remainder of the week and over the
weekend. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-
force late night and early morning starting this evening through
Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft with the
strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection and isolated strong convection is noted
south of 07N east of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the central Florida peninsula westward
to 25N95W, then southward to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-28N between 87W-
95W. Winds poleward of the front are fresh to strong, while
moderate or weaker equatorward. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW and N
central Gulf with 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from
near South Florida to 23N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche
this evening, then dissipate over the far southeastern Gulf Thu.
Fresh northeast to east winds north of the front will gradually
diminish to moderate speeds by late tonight. High pressure will
build over the southeastern United States by the end of the
week. It will support moderate to fresh east-southeast winds
across the basin, with fresh to locally strong winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Ridging north of the Caribbean along 24N combined with lower
pressure over N South America is forcing generally fresh NE to E
trades over the central and S Caribbean with strong NE winds
just north of Colombia.  No significant deep convection is
occuring today over the Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the S
central Caribbean, 5-8 ft over the SW and E Caribbean, and 2-5
ft over the NW Caribbean. An 0800 UTC Jason-3 altimeter observed
seas up to 10 ft near 12N75W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the rest
of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force
each night through Sun night. Winds will pulse to fresh to
strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through
Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical
North Atlantic this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W southwestward to the E central
Florida peninsula. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N70W to
29N73W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 29N
between 67W-77W. NW to N winds poleward of the front are fresh
to strong, while winds ahead of the front to the pre-frontal
trough are SW fresh to strong. Surface ridging extends from
31N30W to 24N60W to 25N77W. Trades equatorward of the ridge are
generally moderate or weaker, though fresh to strong NE winds
are present off of NW Africa north of 26N east of 18W. Seas are
8-9 ft in NW swell north of 29N between 25W-45W and north of 17N
east of 25W. Elsewhere seas are 6-8 ft east of 60W and 4-6 ft
west of 60W.

In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward
through Fri, at which time it will reach to along 22N/23N. It
will weaken and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong winds and higher
seas are forecast north of 29N in the vicinity of the front
today, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of
the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong
northeast to northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting
Thu night. Winds diminish during Sat as fresh to strong
southwest winds develop over the waters offshore northeastern
Florida in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
expected to reach from near 31N77W to West Palm Beach, Florida
late Sat night and weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to
27N75W and weakening stationary to South Florida by late Sun. NE
swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the
end of the week.

$$
CWL/JA
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