[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290856
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong easterly winds over the central Caribbean
through the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale- force at night Thu
night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 12 to 13
ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W to
00N27W. The ITCZ extends from 00N27W to 01S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 05N between 14W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range west of the front, and 1-3
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and extend from
near Tampa Bay to the western Bay of Campeche today, then weaken
and dissipate over the far SE waters Thu. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf behind the front
through early today. High pressure will build over the SE United
States by the end of the week, and will support moderate to fresh
E-SE winds across the basin, with fresh to locally strong winds
off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the
start of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean, except
light to gentle in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
in the south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4
ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to
strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the week.
Winds N of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night Thu night
into Sun night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the
approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has moved off the SE United States coast overnight.
Fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the front.
A ridge of high pressure extends SW from 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 31N22W, then runs along roughly 26N west of 45W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the ridge. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere over the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to fresh winds are found south of 20N and west of 45W,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of 20N. Seas are in
the 7-9 ft range north of 15N and east of 50W. Seas of 6-8 ft are
elsewhere south of 20N and west of 50W. Elsewhere, seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slowly track
southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N.
Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the
vicinity of the front today, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient,
generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas
starting Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east
of the Bahamas by the end of the week.

$$
AL
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