[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing
to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through
Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-11 ft each
morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 12N76W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 05S30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 05N between 37W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high-pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across
Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Recent observations
indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
across the western Gulf, while seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Bay
of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
are noted over the eastern Gulf. Light smoke from agricultural
fires may be in place across parts of the western Gulf, although
this is less than it has been over recent days.

For the forecast, the ridge will slowly shift south through late
Mon. Moderate to fresh winds southerly winds will continue
across most of the Gulf through late tonight, except for fresh to
strong SE winds in the western Gulf through today. Fresh to
strong winds will also pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula
during the evening hours through the period. A weak cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move
southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally
fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon.
Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Mon
night and move slowly southeastward. The front should reach from
northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and possibly reach from
the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf, where it may stall
with its western part lifting northward as a warm front by late
Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow in
behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW
Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean, where wave heights are
reaching 7 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted
elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft seas over the
northwest Caribbean. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
noted.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing
near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
through at least Tue night. Winds will continue to pulse to
strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras this evening and continue into early next week. Fresh
trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central
Caribbean through the period.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge extends from just west of the Azores
Islands, through 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N60W to
the northern Bahamas. A cold front is analyzed just east of the
ridge, from the Azores to 27N45W, where it becomes a stationary
front to 23N60W. Fresh NW winds are noted within 90 nm of the
front, north of 28N. Wave heights are reaching 8 to 10 ft north
of the front in NW swell. Gentle to moderate easterly flow and 5
to 7 ft seas dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic south
of 30N. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will change little through
the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week as a cold
front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. The cold
front will be followed and preceded by fresh to strong winds and
building seas. Winds are expected to attain near gale-force
speeds on either side of the front north of 29N by late Wed as
the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to
east- central Cuba.

$$
Christensen
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