[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the
northwestern Caribbean dissipates through Tue, the gradient
between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will tighten. This will
cause fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean with winds
pulsing nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia Tue and
Wed. Seas will reach 12 ft near the gale force winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N,
between 08W and 17W. Similar convection is observed from the
equator to 04N, between 31W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging from the Ohio River Valley dominates the
basin. In the western Gulf winds are fresh to strong from the SE
with 6-8 ft seas. Seas are 5-7 ft in the southern Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits, on an abating
trend. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate winds
and seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United
States through the work week, allowing for primarily moderate to
fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western
Gulf tonight through Tue night, and again Thu and Thu night.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the
evening through the next several days. A weak cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward
while losing strength.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed across the NW
Caribbean from central Cuba to Honduras. NW of the front, winds
are fresh to strong from the NE with 7-10 ft seas. SE of the
front, winds are moderate with slight seas. A building pressure
gradient is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central and
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front extends from
central Cuba to the Cayman Islands to eastern Honduras. Fresh to
strong NNE winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan
Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras through tonight. Marine conditions will improve by
early Tue as the stalled front dissipates. Strong to near-gale
force NE to E winds will pulse offshore Colombia tonight,
pulsing to gale force at night Tue night through Fri night.
Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the eastern and north-
central Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed.
Large trade wind swell will continue to affect the Tropical N
Atlantic waters through Tue night before subsiding Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N72W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers are observed within
120 nm of the front. Behind the front and north of 29N, winds
are fresh to strong from the NE with 8-12 ft seas. Otherwise
winds are moderate to fresh with moderate seas in the western
Atlantic. The central Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure centered near 31N43W. Winds are gentle near the high,
increasing to fresh to strong from the NE-E south of 25N and
east of 27W. Seas are 8-10 ft across the majority of the central
Atlantic within these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northerly winds
and rough seas are expected behind the front north of 27N as it
moves southeastward over the next few days. The front will reach
from near 31N63W to 23N75W Tue evening and from near 28.5N55W to
near 23N70W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in Fri
along 28N.

$$
Flynn
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