[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the
northwestern Caribbean dissipates through Tue, the gradient
between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will tightened. This
is forecast to allow for fresh to strong trade winds in the
central Caribbean. The exception is that winds will pulse to
gale-force at night off the coast of Colombia Tue and Wed along
with related seas peaking to 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast
of Sierra Leone near 12N16W and continues to 07N21W and to
01N27W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N34W and to below the
Equator near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 34W-39W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 28W-34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure has taken reign over the area. A tight gradient
between the high pressure and a trough that extends from
northeastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche is allowing
for fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds to exist
south of 23N and west of 90W as seen in a recent partial ASCAT
data pass over that part of the Gulf. In addition, buoy 42055
located near 22N94W is reporting northeast to east winds of 20-25
kt. The partial ASCAT data pass also shows moderate to fresh
north to northeast winds in the the central Gulf. Buoy
observations are reporting similar winds in the eastern Gulf. The
buoys are also reporting moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are in the range of 4-6 ft north of
26N and 6-9 ft south of 26N due to a north to northeast swell,
except for higher seas of 8-10 ft in the southeastern Gulf and
in the Straits of Florida.

Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mainly low clouds with
possible isolated showers confined to south of 24N west of 92W,
and north of 24N west of 94W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain over the
southern and southeastern United States through the rest of the
week, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds. Winds will
increase to strong speeds in the western Gulf waters on Tue and
again on Thu. Strong winds will also pulse off the northwest
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through the next several days, reaching
the southern Gulf waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf on Fri and slide eastward afterward while losing
strength.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
an ongoing Gale Warning for a part of the sea.

A stationary front is analyzed across the northwestern Caribbean
from central Cuba near 22N80W, southwestward to the central Bay
of Campeche. Scattered to broken low clouds and occasional broken
to overcast mid-level clouds are along and within about 240 nm
west of the frontal boundary. Isolated showers are possible
underneath these clouds, including in the Gulf of Honduras. With
high pressure behind the front surging southeastward from the
Gulf of Mexico, the gradient between it and the front is leading
to strong north to northeast winds west of the front and north
of 18N, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters. Seas
with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, a tight
gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean is providing for
generally fresh trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean
areas, where seas are 5-7 ft, except for higher seas of 6-9 ft
due to a northeast to east swell from 11N to 15N between 72W-
76W. Seas of 5-7 ft are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere
trade winds are of gentle to moderate speeds with seas of 4-6 ft
due to a northeast to east swell.

Patches of low-level moisture, in the form of scattered to broken
low-level clouds moving quickly in the trade wind flow, are
observed from 13N to 16N and east of 66W. Isolated showers are
possible with these clouds. Low-level cloud streamers, with
possible isolated showers are south of 13N and east of 69W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through most of
tonight. Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue
as the above mentioned stationary front dissipates. Fresh to
strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia tonight, then increase
to between strong and near gale-force by Tue. These winds will
peak at gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Fresh northeast to
east winds along with moderate seas will change little in the
eastern and north-central Caribbean, including the Atlantic
Passages through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from low pressure of 1016 mb near 31N72W to
the central Bahamas, where it transitions to a stationary front
to inland central Cuba near 23N79W. Moderate to fresh northwest
to north winds are behind the front along with seas of 4-7 ft,
except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of 29N between 74W-77W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are east of the front to near
55W and north of 25N, while moderate east to southeast winds are
south of 25N, with the exception of fresh east winds from 19N to
22N between 55W-60W. Seas are 4-7 ft east of the front to near
55W, with the exception of higher seas of 6-8 ft from 19N to 22N
between 55W-60W. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low-
level clouds and broken mid-level clouds west of the front to a
line from 31N76W to just offshore South Florida and to near
Havana, Cuba. Surface observations from the Bahamas indicate
isolated mostly light showers with these clouds. Isolated showers
are possible over some areas of central Cuba.

In the central Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered
just north of the area near 32N45W dominates the wind regime and
weather pattern for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. A
weakening cold front is analyzed from near 31N24W to 26N28W and
to near 22N37W. No convection is occurring with this front.
Latest ASCAT data passes reveal moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds to the northwest of the front, fresh northeast to
east winds south of 26N between 30W-40W and also south of 24N
between 30W-60W. Winds are light to gentle near the high pressure
center. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Atlantic due to a long
period northwest to north swell. Moderate winds and seas are
present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northerly winds
and rough seas are expected behind the western Atlantic cold
front described above east of 77W and north of 27N as the front
moves southeastward during the next few days. Wind gusts to
gale- force are possible late this evening through Tue morning,
especially in areas of strong convection. Afterward, fresh to
strong northeast winds and rough seas should shift eastward
across the western Atlantic with the front through Wed night.
Large northerly swell to the northeast and east of the Lesser
Antilles should gradually subside through Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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