[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: N winds of 30-40 kt will persist
in the SW Gulf offshore near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico until early
tomorrow morning. Seas are currently 12 to 14 ft in the south-
central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Once the cold
front exits the Gulf of Mexico tonight, winds and seas should
gradually subside through early next week. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details on the Gale Warning.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE
WARNING for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, with ongoing gales
continuing through 20/0000 UTC. Seas are currently 8-10 ft,
locally 11 ft in the strongest winds. Please see the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast and Warning at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more
information.

The special feature for a significant swell event is
now discontinued, since seas within the area of swell have
subsided below 12 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and
continues to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 21W and
24W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of both
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from the Everglades in SW Florida to
the N Yucatan Peninsula. In the lee of the front, seas exceed 8 ft
in the waters south of 28N, with peak seas to 14 ft in the Gale
Warning area. Strong to near gale force N winds are collocated
with these seas south of 28N. Elsewhere north of 28N and in far
eastern coastal waters, N winds are fresh with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift SE of the area today,
with marine conditions gradually improving. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will develop briefly over the western Gulf Tue before
diminishing slightly the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening shear line remains in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail in the eastern and central Caribbean with
4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia. In the W Caribbean, winds are gentle to
moderate with 2-4 ft seas. A weak surface trough extends from the
Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras, producing a few showers.

For the forecast, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W
will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, and
moderate to locally rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon. Moderate northerly swell will persist in
the Atlantic passages through midweek. Fresh to strong easterly
winds will pulse off Colombia through Mon, increase slightly Tue,
and possibly reach gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Winds and
seas will increase in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern
Caribbean this evening through Mon as a cold front moves into the
area. Winds and seas over these waters will diminish late Mon
night through Tue as the stalled front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on an
East Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France.

A cold front enters the area near 31N29W and continues to 24N36W,
where a dissipating cold front begins and continues to 17N51W,
where a weakening shear line begins and continues through the
Lesser Antilles. No significant convection is noted with these
features at this time. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central tropical
Atlantic, north of 10N between 30W and 60W, within subsiding NW
swell. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the basin. A cold front in
the far NW waters, from 31N73W to Miami, FL. 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 30N53W dominates most of the basin, providing
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Fresh NE to E winds are
noted on scatterometer south of 20N and west of 40W to the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front currently in the W
Atlantic will move east and stall from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by Mon morning. A new set of northerly swell will
propagate into the forecast waters late Mon night. Winds will
strengthen north of the stalled front Mon, then diminish mid week.

$$
Mahoney
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