[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N34W
SW to near Dominica in the Leeward Islands. Large and long period
NW swell is analyzed behind this front. Seas in excess of 12 ft
are north of 27N between 38W and 53W with peak seas of 13 ft,
however seas in excess of 8 ft extends as far south as 12N and
cover the region between 33W and 65W. Swell period is 10-13 seconds.
This swell will continue to propagate eastward and gradually
diminish through tonight, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by
tomorrow morning as the front moves E of 35W.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
Tampa Bay SW to the Bay of Campeche. This front will reach from
near Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight,
spreading strong to near-gale force northerly winds to the
northeastern and central Gulf. Gale force NW to N winds will begin
early tomorrow morning in the SW Gulf. By tomorrow evening,
frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the south-central
Gulf. Seas currently 8-11 ft in the lee of the front will build
to 12 and 14 ft in gales and the persistent strong to near gale
force N winds. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun night
through Mon as the front stalls and dissipates over the far
northwest Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on the Gale Warning and Significant Swell above.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning
for the following offshore zones: AGADIR, from 18/1200 UTC to
at least 19/1200 UTC, and TARFAYA, from 18/1800 UTC to 19/0600
UTC. N to NW winds to Force 8 are expected. Seas will range from
9-13 ft with highest seas in the area of strongest winds. For more
information please see the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast and
Warning at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast
of Liberia near 06N11W, and extends west-southwestward to 03N22W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the monsoon trough
from 01N to 07N between 05W and 17W. The ITCZ continues westward
from 03N22W across 00N37W to the Amazon River Delta, Brazil at
the equator and 50W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

The strong cold front described in SPECIAL FEATURES is currently
accompanied by scattered moderate convection affecting the gulf
waters E of 90W. A 1012 mb low pressure is just ahead of the front
near 23N91W with a surface trough that extends to the eastern Bay
of Campeche. The low pressure should be absorbed by the front this
evening. Behind the front, N winds are strong to near gale force
with 8-11 ft seas. Ahead of the front, S winds are gentle to
locally moderate with 4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, wind will reach gale force off Veracruz, Mexico
overnight as the front extends from southwest Florida to the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula by early Sun. Frequent gusts to gale
force are possible behind the front late Sun over the central
Gulf. The front will move southeast of the area by early Mon. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will allow winds and
seas to diminish across most the Gulf through Mon, although fresh
to strong winds over the western Gulf will persist and shift SE
Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas will continue to
diminish across the remainder of the basin through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends across the northeastern Caribbean Sea from
the southern Leeward Islands to south of the Dominican Republic.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are N of this boundary affecting
the north-central and NE Caribbean waters along with seas to 7 ft.
Surface high pressure of 1024 mb centered SE of Bermuda continues
to extend a ridge to most of the northern Caribbean waters. This
is resulting in the continuation of fresh to strong winds in the
south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. A weaker
pressure gradient across the western Caribbean support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds, except for fresh SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area behind the
front will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
moderate to occasionally rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through late Sun. Large northerly swell will persist at
the Atlantic passages through tonight. Fresh to strong easterly
winds will continue to pulse off Colombia through Mon, then
increase to between strong and near-gale by Tue. Winds and seas
are expected to increase in the Yucatan Channel and far northwest
Caribbean by Sun night as a cold front moves into the area. These
winds and seas should gradually diminish through Tue as the
stalled front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT and an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

Broad surface ridging covers the SW N Atlantic waters being
anchored by a 1024 mb high SE of Bermuda near 29N59W. This is
supporting fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds off
Hispaniola forecast to continue through Sun. Ahead of the ridge,
is the cold front associated with the significant swell event in
the Special Features. See above for more details. The remainder E
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high,
which ridge is supporting fresh to strong NE winds between the NW
coast of Africa and 23W.

For the forecast W of 55W, large northerly swell west of 65W will
subside through Sun, except for northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. Meanwhile, expect fresh to strong southerly flow and
building seas north of 29N between northeast Florida and Bermuda
through this evening, ahead of the cold front moving across the
northeast Florida offshore waters. The front will move east and
stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will increase north of the stalled front
Mon through mid-week with NE swell.

$$
Ramos
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