[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends
southwestward from near the Azores across 31N40W to near
Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Large, long-period NW swell
behind this front is causing 12 to 15 ft seas north of 25N
between 41W and 55W. This swell will continue to propagate
eastward while gradually diminish through tonight, allowing seas
to subside below 12 ft by Sun morning as the front moves E of
35W.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. This front will
reach from near Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche
late this afternoon, spreading strong to near-gale force northerly
winds to the north-central, northeastern and central Gulf.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected at the central Gulf by
late this afternoon, which will expand into the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Sun evening. In addition, winds offshore Veracruz,
Mexico will also reach gale force by Sun morning. Seas will peak
between 11 and 14 ft under the strongest winds. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish Sun night through Mon as the front stalls
and dissipates over the far northwest Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on the Gale Warning and Significant Swell above.

Atlantic Gale Warning east of the Canary Islands: Strong pressure
gradient exists between a 1024 mb high north of the Madeira
Islands and lower pressures over northern Africa. This will
produce gale force winds in the Meteo-France forecast regions of
Agadir Sat morning through Sat evening and Tarfaya late Sat
afternoon into Sat night. Please read the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast and Warning listed on the WMO website at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/dispaly/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, and extends west-southwestward
to 03N21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the monsoon
trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 20W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 03N21W across 02N35W to the Amazon River Delta,
Brazil. Patchy showers are noted up to 100 nm along either side of
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about an upcoming Gale Warning late this afternoon.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Numerous heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm southeast of the
front north of 25N, while scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found near and up to 80 nm northwest of the
front south of 25N. A diurnal surface trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds
are present behind the front from the western Bay of Campeche
northeastward to near New Orleans. Seas are at 6 to 9 ft across
the northwestern and north-central Gulf, and 9 to 11 ft for the
west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are present east of the front for the rest of the
Gulf. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft at the central Bay of Campeche,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Fort Myers,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche late this afternoon,
spreading strong to near-gale northerly winds to the north-central
and central Gulf, outside the Gale Warning area. This front
should reach from the Florida Straits to Yucatan Peninsula Sun
afternoon, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds to the western
portions of the east-central and southeastern Gulf. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the Gulf
during the early to middle parts of next week as the front stalls
and dissipates over the far northwest Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves west-southwestward from the central Atlantic
across Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands to south of the
Dominican Republic near 16N69W. Patchy showers are noted up to 60
nm along either side of this front. Convergent southerly winds are
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
Cuba, including waters near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Fresh
with locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident across the eastern and central basin, including the
Windward and Mona Passages, and north of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area behind the
front will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
moderate to occasionally rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon morning. Large northerly swell will persist
at the Atlantic passages through tonight. Fresh to strong
easterly winds will continue to pulse off Colombia through Mon,
then increase to between strong and near-gale by Tue. Winds and
seas are expected to increase in the Yucatan Channel by Sun night
as a cold front moves into the area. These winds and seas should
gradually diminish through Tue as the stalled front dissipates.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
significant swell in the central Atlantic, and gales east of the
Canary Islands.

A cold front extends southwestward from near the Azores across
31N40W to near Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 120 nm northwest of this
feature. Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted behind this
front north of 28N between 40W and 52W. Refer to the Special
Features section for sea heights in this area. Farther southwest,
fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are seen
from the front northward to 20N between 50W and the Leeward
Islands/Dominican Republic. To the north, a 1021 mb high near
29N67W is promoting light to gentle winds from the southeast
Bahamas northward to 29N between 52W and the central Florida
coast. Within this area, moderate northerly swell are sustaining 8
to 11 ft seas east of 64W, and 4 to 7 ft seas west of 64W. Off
the northeast Florida coast, fresh to strong southerly winds with
7 to 10 ft seas in easterly swell exist north of 29N between 70W
and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast.

Near the Canary Islands outside the Meteo-France Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong NNE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
evident north of 18N between the African coast and 25W. To the
west, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are
found north of 20N between 25W and 34W/45W. Farther south, gentle
to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate
northerly swell are present from 05N to 20N/16N between 45W and
the Windward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
in gentle northerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned 1021 mb high
will support fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds off
Hispaniola through Sun. Large northerly swell west of 70W will
subside through Sun. Meanwhile, expect fresh to strong southerly
flow and building seas north of 29N between northeast Florida and
Bermuda through this evening, ahead of a cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast this morning. The front will move east
and stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase north of the stalled
front Mon through mid week with NE swell.

$$
Forecaster Chan
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