[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N50W to the
NE Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data indicate only a few gale
force wind barbs near 26N54W. As a result, the Gale Warning is
allowed to expire. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side
of the front N of 22N. Large N swell accompanies this front,
currently peaking near 16 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted
generally N of 25N W of the front to about 70W based on altimeter
data and buoy observations. The front will continue moving
southeastward and reach from 31N45W to 20N55W through the northern
Leeward Islands by this morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds
immediately behind the front will continue across the waters east
of 60W during the overnight hours. Large N swell behind this front
will spread southward to 20N and east of 75W. Seas behind the
front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun as the
front moves E of 35W.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf this morning, causing strong to near-
gale northerly winds and building seas. As this front moves
southeastward, these conditions will spread to the north-central
and southwestern Gulf by this afternoon. Winds will reach gale
force at the west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche near
Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon through evening. Seas of 8 to 12 ft
are expected in the wake of the front, building to 13 or 14 ft in
area of gale force winds. The front will reach from southern
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, bringing
strong to near-gale N to NE winds into the northeastern and
central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf
region. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible at the central
Gulf Sat evening through Sun with seas building again to 9 to 13
ft. As the front continues southeastward passing the Yucatan
Channel and Florida Straits on Sun night, both winds and seas
should gradually subside across the Gulf on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 06N11W then continues SW to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N17W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 01N between 35W and 40W, and between 47W and 50W.
Most of the convective activity is currently south of the equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure located east of northern Florida dominates
the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico supports fresh to
strong return flow over the western Gulf with seas of 6 to 8 ft
per altimeter data. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are over the
eastern Gulf with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, with the exception
of fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the Straits of
Florida and just off the north coast of west and central Cuba.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Gulf waters
today producing strong to gale force winds and building seas.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the Anegada Passage into the Caribbean
Sea crossing just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. A
band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and isolated
thunderstorms remains associated with the front and continues to
affect the aforementioned Greater Antilles. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean likely related to
remnants of the front over this area. Mainly fresh northerly
winds are behind the front E of Hispaniola. Altimeter data and
buoy observations indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft across the Atlantic
waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

As previously mentioned, a high pressure of 1023 mb is centered
over the western Atlantic near 30N76W. This is supporting fresh to
strong winds over the Windward Passage as well as south of Cuba.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are between Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the south-
central and SE Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range S of Cuba, near the Cayman
Islands, and over the Windward Passage. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are in
the area of moderate to fresh winds near the coasts of Venezuela
and Colombia, and seas of 2 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sink farther
southward today and tonight reaching to near 15N on Sat before
gradually dissipating by Sun. Strong winds will follow the front,
locally higher in Atlantic passages with large N swell spreading
through Atlantic passages through Sat. Another front is expected
to move slowly southeastward through the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Sun and stall across the Yucatan Channel Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to the NE Caribbean. A swell
event follows the front with seas in excess of 12 ft. Please see
Special Features section above for more details.

High pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N76W dominates the western
Atlantic, including the State of Florida and the Bahamas. The
associated ridge extends southward toward Cuba and Hispaniola.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds, and a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow are seen under the influence of this system with seas of 4
to 6 ft E of the Bahamas. Winds and seas increase E of 70W due to
the presence of the above mentioned cold front. The remainder of
the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by another high pressure
system of 1020 mb situated near 31N32W. Fresh to strong winds are
occurring between the Canary Islands and downwind to near 23N.
These winds are also affecting the coast of Western Saharan. Seas
of 11 to 14 ft in N swell are observed per altimeter data near the
high pressure center, particularly N of 26N between 27W and 38W.
Mainly moderate NE to E trades are blowing across the tropical
Atlantic, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell prevailing
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the next cold front is expected to move
off northeastern Florida on Sat, with fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. This front is expected
to reach from 31N72W to S Florida late Sun before stalling.

$$
GR
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