[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will extend from 31N52W to
25N63W to 20.5N74W on Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop
in the vicinity of the front from 21N-26N between 65W-75W. Seas
will range from 8-11 ft within the strongest winds. These
conditions will follow the front as it moves E through Fri.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant
wave heights of 12 to 17 ft, is occurring N of 23N between 38W-68W.
The highest seas of 14 ft and above are occurring N of 28N
between 39W-50W. This swell was generated by a frontal system
sweeping through the region, with the cold front currently
extending from 31N35W to 20N57W. Moderate to fresh winds are
occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of 28N
between 29W-48W. The area of seas 12 ft and higher will move E
through Wed then lift of out the NE waters Wed afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 18N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to coastal
Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
03N between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the basin from the Straits of
Florida to 24N85W, then becomes stationary to 22N97W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted N of the front, where seas are 5 to 8
ft. Scattered moderate convection is along and N of the front and
W of 90W.

For the forecast, front will get reinforced with a surge of fresh
to strong winds tonight allowing it to push SE of the basin by
early Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by Wed
night, become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf
Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N
winds are briefly possible behind the front offshore the upper
Mexican waters late Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz
Fri evening and night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable conditions persist across the Caribbean basin due
to mid to upper-level ridging and weak low level winds. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail across most of the basin, S of 17N and E
of 78W, fresh SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, and light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the southern
Caribbean, and 4-5 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are up to
7 ft in the Mona and Anegada Passages in N-NE swell.

For the forecast, winds will increase slightly through Wed, with
fresh winds pulsing to strong winds at night in the south-central
and southeast portions. Moderate northerly swell will gradually
subside through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE
across the northwestern basin Wed, reach from the Windward
Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward
Islands to the central Caribbean along 16N Fri. Strong winds will
follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with Large
N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through early Fri
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning and
the Significant Swell event currently in effect.

A 985 mb low pressure is centered N of the area, dragging a cold
front through 31N67W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring
ahead of the front to 60W and N of 28N. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in
this area. To the west of the front towards the coast of Florida,
moderate to fresh NW winds prevail, along with 7 to 9 ft in NE
swell. Weak high pressure ridging persists from the SE Bahamas
eastward along 21N, yielding light to gentle anticyclonic winds
south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Seas are 8 ft or higher
in N swell to the north of 18N between 47W and E of the Bahamas.

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 38N11W is inducing fresh
to strong NE winds from Morocco and Western Sahara to the Canary
Islands, with seas of 6-9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic from 07N
to 18N between 30W and 60W, moderate to locally fresh NE trades
prevail, with seas of 6-8 ft in decaying N swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the large N swell will subside tonight
through Wed. A cold front will reach from 31N59W to central Cuba
Wed morning, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning,
and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning.
Strong to possibly gale-force northerly winds immediately behind
the front will move through the Bahamas Wed night, and then shift
across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu. Another
set of large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft
or greater N of 24N and E of 72W. Yet another cold front is
expected to move off Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of it Fri night through Sat.

$$
ERA
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