[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient that exists between the 1023 mb
high pressure center at 34N53W and the comparatively lower
surface pressure that is in Colombia will continue to support
strong NE to E winds, pulsing each night to gale, and sea heights
of 8 to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia through late week.

Western Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING:

A cold front stretches from 31N70W through the SE Bahamas and into
eastern Cuba. A band of scattered convection is noted within 60 nm
ahead of the cold front, N of 25N. Also N of 25N, strong NW winds
W of the front and strong SW winds E of the front prevail between
60W and 80W. N of 29N between 65W and 75W, these winds increase to
gale-force. The front will track E through mid-week, while
gradually weakening. Thus, gales will end on both sides of the
front by tonight, with the area of strong winds gradually
decreasing to fresh by Tue night. Seas of 12 to 18 ft exist in
waters where the strong and gale force winds are occurring. These
seas will only gradually decrease, and likely remain above 12 ft
through Tue.

For details on both Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to
01N25W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough, S of 06N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered in the western Gulf near
24N93W, bringing relatively modest anticyclonic flow to the basin.
Winds are mainly light to gentle, with moderate to fresh N winds
near the Florida coast and in the Florida Straits, and moderate to
locally fresh S winds developing offshore the Mexico coast N of
Tampico, as well as along the lower Texas coast. Seas are subside
across the basin, but remain at 6 to 9 ft in the eastern Gulf, 3
to 6 ft in the central Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease in the eastern Gulf
today. As high pressure moves E of the area, southerly return flow
will increase in the NW Gulf today, and become strong tonight
through Tue night. The next cold front will emerge off of the
Texas coast Thu, likely strong N winds behind it for the western
Gulf for the end of the week. Gale conditions are possible
offshore Veracruz Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE WARNING for the coastal waters of Colombia.

A weak cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Honduras
Nicaragua border. No convection is associated with it and moderate
to locally fresh NE winds follow its passage. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
in the NW basin. Elsewhere, away from the gales offshore Colombia
described in the Special Features section above, mainly fresh NE
to E trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will prevail
over the central Caribbean. The cold front from eastern Cuba to
the Honduras Nicaragua border will dissipate today. Elsewhere,
large and long- period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the
tropical N Atlantic. This swell will gradually subside into
tonight. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE WARNING that covers the areas N of the Bahamas between 65W
and 75W.

Away from the cold front that is inducing the gales, the basin is
dominated by high pressure of 1022 mb centered near 28N50W. The
gradient between this high and lower pressure along the ITCZ and
in South America is leading to widespread fresh to strong trades
S of 20N, with ares to the north mainly having gentle to moderate
easterly flow. A weak surface trough from 26N29W to 20N33W is
not producing any in the way of sensible weather at this time. A
stationary front along 31N between 40W and 60W is dissipating this
morning, with any associated convection N of the region.

Seas in the area of fresh to strong trades are 8 to 10 ft W of
35W. Another area of 8 to 10 ft seas is associated with NW swell N
of 27N between 30W and 55W. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 5
to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba
will cross the basin through mid-week. Strong winds and rough
seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N
through Tue. Rough seas will accompany these strong winds. A
building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south
of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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