[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N38W to the Virgin Islands. Gale force winds
remain within 90 nm east of the front and north of 28N. Seas are
peaking at 18 ft near the frontal boundary. Very rough seas
cover the majority of the west and central subtropical North
Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between
30W and 70W, reaching as far south as 20N. Winds are expected to
decrease below gale force early Fri. The swell from this event
will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through the
weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has developed along the Yucatan Peninsula,
generating a fresh breeze in the eastern Bay of Campeche. High
pressure prevails across the remainder of the Gulf waters with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft across the
central Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure along the Carolina coasts
extends weakly SW into the central Gulf tonight. A cold front is
forecast to enter the Gulf region Fri, and move over the
northern Gulf waters by Fri night, reaching from near Tampa Bay
to NW Gulf early on Sat, then dissipate by early Sat evening.
The next cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into
Mon. This front is forecast to reach the far southern Gulf Tue
and exit the Gulf Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the far northern Caribbean,
disrupting the normal pressure gradient. Fresh N-NE winds are
observed north of 17N, including the Windward and Mona Passages,
lee of Cuba and over the waters NE of Jamaica. 6-9 ft swell is
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Winds are
generally moderate with slight seas across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to sink southward
tonight through Fri night and gradually dissipate. Large NW to N
swell accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic
waters and move through the NE Caribbean passages through late
Fri then gradually subside.  Gentle to moderate trade winds will
dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast period, except
for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south-
central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun night through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N38W to the Virgin Islands. Aside
from the gale force winds, moderate to strong NW winds cover
much of the discussion waters behind the front. Fresh to strong
SW winds are observed within 300 nm ahead of the front. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Rough seas cover the
majority of the subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or greater
are observed north of a line from 31N23W to 16N50W to 20N70W to
31N75W. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to sink
southward through Fri night and weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW
winds N of 25N and E of 70W will increase to strong to near gale-
force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters by Fri
afternoon. Large NW to N swell in the wake of the front is
producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of 20N and E of about 72W
tonight, and will dominate regional waters through Fri night
before beginning to subside. Looking ahead, the next cold front
is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri
afternoon, bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds
ahead of it to waters east of Florida. This front will move
eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale-
force winds possible ahead of the front. Yet another cold front
is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night
and reach from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.

$$
Flynn
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