[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090358 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N45W across Turks and Caicos to South Florida.
Gale force winds are currently observed on both sides of the
front, mainly north of 28N between 37W and 57W. The maximum
significant wave height is 22 ft near 31N55W. Rough seas cover
the majority of the west and central subtropical North Atlantic.
Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between 35W and
74W, reaching as far south as 23N. Seas in excess of 8 ft are
currently observed between 15W and 80W, reaching as far south as
19N. The front will continue advancing, reaching from 31N42W
across the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf of Mexico by Thu
morning and into the Caribbean by Fri morning. Winds will slowly
decrease, becoming sub-gale by Fri. The swell from this event
will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through the
weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between
25W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the NE Gulf from near Tampa, Florida
to Apalachicola, Florida. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
observed NE of the front. A surface trough extends along the
Yucatan Peninsula. This feature is supporting fresh NE winds in
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure and gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NE and
SW Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front extending across the Florida
Straits will reach Havana, Cuba Thu morning before dissipating
by Thu night. Fresh easterly winds will briefly follow the
front. Another cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf region
Fri and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri night,
reaching from near Tampa Bay, FL to Galveston, TX by Sat morning
before dissipating late Sat. A third cold front will likely
enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The approaching cold front has disrupted the normal pressure
gradient across the basin. Winds are moderate in the Windward
Passage, south central and NW Caribbean. Gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Sea heights are also lower than normal, with 2-4 ft
observed across the vast majority of the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Greater Antilles
on Thu, producing fresh northerly winds and showers. A
significant swell event will follow the front, creating
hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic waters and the
NE Caribbean passages. The front will extend from the Leeward
Islands to Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri before
dissipating Fri night. The swell event will also propagate
across the waters E of Leeward Islands late Thu into Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds will dominate the remainder of the forecast
period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the SE and south-
central Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

Outside of the gale force winds associated with the cold front
extending across the central and western Atlantic, NW winds are
generally fresh to strong behind the front. Fresh to strong SW
winds are observed extending about 300 nm ahead of the front.
Gentle to moderate winds are found in the deep tropics and
eastern Atlantic as a high pressure ridge extends from the
Canary Islands to the east central Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in
these areas.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale force NW winds
will persist N of 27N and E of 65W through Fri. A significant
swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft
covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W. Seas of 12 ft
will reach as far south as 22N by Thu morning. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S.
by Fri afternoon, brining strong to near gale force winds to
waters east of Florida. This system will move eastward across
the area during the weekend, with minimal gale conditions
possibly developing ahead of the front.

$$
Flynn
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