[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: As of 08/0900 UTC, a
cold front extends from 31N58W to 27N69W to 30N81W. Gale force
winds are currently occurring on both sides of the front, mainly
north of 28N between 52W and 67W. Seas are currently 15 to 19 ft
in the gale force wind area. The front is progressing quickly
southeastward and will extend from 31N46W to 26N55W to 23N70W to
Miami, FL by this evening, and then from 31N43W to 23N55W to the N
coast of Hispaniola to Havana, Cuba Thu morning. Gale force winds
are expected to continue through Thu evening, especially ahead of
the front. This prolonged event will build seas in the basin
already impacted by elevated swell from previous storms, creating
some of the highest sea states in the subtropical Atlantic this
year. Seas will build to 19 to 21 ft later this morning while
propagating south and east. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach as
far south as 21N on Thu. By late Thu, the vast majority of the
west and central Atlantic east of the Bahamas and north of 17N
will be impacted by rough seas in excess of 8 ft while very rough
to high seas persist in the subtropical central Atlantic. The
swell from this event will slowly subside during the weekend,
although the next significant low-pressure system will partially
rebuild swell in the western Atlantic over the weekend, discussed
below in the Atlantic Ocean section.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia
and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from
03N18W to 00N34W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 05S to 04N between 13W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1020 mb high centered near 27N87W. Gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas
prevail from the NE Gulf to the central Gulf. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds and seas 3-4 ft are noted to the west of the Yucatan
Peninsula, over the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are occurring
over the NW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will dominate the area through today. A cold front will enter the
NE Gulf today, and extend from Havana, Cuba to near Mobile,
Alabama by Thu afternoon, before dissipating by late Thu night.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast in the far E Gulf, east of
the front. Another weak cold front is likely to reach the
northern Gulf Coast Fri and move over the northern Gulf waters by
Fri night before dissipating Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh NE trades prevail over the south central Caribbean, in the
Colombian basin, south of 14N between 74W and 81W, where seas are
5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with seas
2-4 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail
across most of the basin today due to a weak pressure gradient as
an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the Caribbean
islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles
on Thu, then reach from the Leeward Islands to Jamaica to the
western tip of Cuba early Fri before dissipating Fri night. The
front will bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages
and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the
weekend. Also, fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front
over the far N Caribbean Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weak stationary front extends from
31N30W to 27N37W, dissipating to 25N45W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front N of 29N and E of 32W. Fresh winds and
rough seas are noted on both sides of the front, and an earlier
altimeter pass found 12-15 ft swell in the central Atlantic north
of 27N. Otherwise, a high-pressure ridge extends from the Canary
Islands to the Leeward Islands to the Old Bahama Channel. Winds
are light to gentle near the ridge axis. Swell in excess of 6 ft
prevails across the basin east of a line from 31N80.5W to 21N65W
to 12N46W to 08N59W to 06N53W. West of that line, seas are 4 to 6
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale force winds will continue on
either side of the west Atlantic cold front today, mainly N of
28N and E of 67W. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force
west of 55W by late this afternoon, but strong NW winds will
persist N of 27N and E of 65W through Fri. A significant NW to N
swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 21 ft
covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early this
afternoon. Seas of 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the
southeast U.S. coast by Fri afternoon, brining strong to near
gale force winds to waters east of Florida. This system will move
eastward across the area during the weekend, with gale force winds
possibly developing N of 29N and E of 70W. Expect very large seas
over the west-central Atlantic north of 26N with this system by
Sun.

$$
Hagen
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