[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period northerly swell is
currently propagating through the central and eastern waters
producing seas of 12-17 ft, N of 26N and between 30W-65W. The
swell will gradually abate and shift eastward through early this
week. Another northerly swell event will push south of 31N with
seas in the 12-21 range ft by the middle of the week. Seas
greater than 12 ft will reach 21N late in the week, staying
generally E of 75W while propagating eastward.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwest to 05N13W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N13W to 01N30W to 00N49W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Tampa, Florida, to
26.5N88.5W and a surface trough continues southwestward to the
southern Bay of Campeche near 18.5N92.5W. No deep convection is
associated with these features. The remainder of the Gulf is
dominated by a weak high pressure regime supporting light to
moderate winds. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail in the basin, except for
1-3 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend
to 25N92W. The front will weaken tonight, with western portions
drifting northward through Mon. Weak high pressure will form
across the NE Gulf late Mon then shift NE of the basin Wed night
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge between Puerto Rico and Bermuda continues to
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central
and eastern Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are found off NW
Colombia. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, while
4-7 ft ft are prevalent in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean. Light to moderate easterly breezes are present in the
NW Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a pressure gradient between high pressure
southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean today and fresh SE
winds across the the NW Caribbean west of 84W, including the Gulf
of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE swell will gradually
fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and northeastern
Caribbean passages today. Winds will gradually diminish to below
normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as an Atlantic cold front sinks
southward toward the NE Caribbean islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A weak cold front extends from 31N66W to Cape Canaveral and only a
few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong westerly
winds are found north of 28N and east of the cold front to 45W.
Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with the highest seas near
31N45W. An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of
the forecast waters west of 55W, supporting light to moderate
anticyclonic winds and moderate seas.

Another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N31W and
continues southwestward to 26N39W, where it transitions into a
stationary front to 25N50W. No deep convection is seen near these
boundary. NW swell behind the fronts support 10-17 ft seas, with
the highest seas occurring near 31N35W. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging extends from the
central Atlantic westward along 25N through the Bahamas. As a
cold front moves SE through Mon, fresh to strong SW winds will
shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge will weaken and reform NE of
the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the front dissipates along
25N. Large NW swell will impact the NE waters behind the front
late Sun through Tue night, then large N to NE swell will move
south of 31N and spread across all Atlantic waters through Thu
with the next frontal system approaching from the north. Gale
conditions are expected by Tue night across the NE portion or the
area. Seas will peak to 20 ft near and north of 30N57W on Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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