[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas have subside to 10 to 12
ft across the Atlantic forecast waters N of 22N and E of 50W,
with the highest over the NE corner N of 30N between 35W and 41W.
Another swell event will enter the forecast waters by Sat
afternoon with seas building to 12 to 20 ft N of 28N and E of
55W by Sat evening. This swell event will gradually abate and
shift E of 40W by Sun evening. At this time, a third swell event
will push south of 31N with seas in the 12 to 18 ft range
propagating across the waters N of 28N E of 60W. By Tue evening,
seas of 12 to 13 ft are expected N of 30N and E of 48W. These
swell events are the result of several storm to hurricane force
low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean N
of the forecast area. Looking ahead, expect another significant
swell event across the west and central Atlantic next week with
building seas of 20 to 22 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a cold front stretches
from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong to near
gale force southerly winds are noted ahead of the front per
scatterometer data over the eastern Gulf while gale force winds
are now occurring in the Veracruz area. This morning, gusty
winds to minimal gale force were reported in Tampico, Mexico. A
ship currently located near Veracruz is reporting NW winds of 45
kt. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within the southerly winds, and 8 to 10
ft in the wake of the front, except 9 to 13 ft in the Veracruz
area. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central
Bay of Campeche late this evening, before stalling on Sat. Gusty
winds to gale force will end across the Gulf waters by late this
evening. Winds and seas will subside by Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then continues southwestward to 03N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Pascagoula, MS to the western Bay of
Campeche. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the
central Bay of Campeche late this evening, before stalling on
Sat. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW Gulf. Please,
see the Special Features section above for more information.

A rope cloud delineates the leading edge of the frontal boundary
while no clouds are observed over the NW Gulf in the wake of the
front. A few showers could be possible ahead of the front over
the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic
and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to locally strong
trade winds over the majority of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft
over the south-central Caribbean, and 8 to 9 ft in the far NW
Caribbean. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft elsewhere.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across
the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The
San Juan Doppler radar shows some of these showers moving across
the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected
across the basin during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong
trades will persist across the central Caribbean through Sat.
Strong to near-gale SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean
west of 82W and north of 16N, including the Gulf of Honduras and
Yucatan Channel, through tonight. Long-period northerly swell
will continue to impact the northeastern Caribbean passages as
well as the waters just E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat
night, creating hazardous marine conditions. Dangerous breaking
waves are expected to reach the coastal waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting
these marine conditions. Additional swell events will continue
to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

High pressure of 1019 mb centered over the central Atlantic near
27N45W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the
Bahamas and SE Florida. Fresh southerly winds are observed along
the western periphery of this ridge along the Florida offshore
waters. Seas are currently 4-6 ft and will continue to build to 8
to 9 ft N of 28N by tonight. Light and variable winds are noted
per scatterometer data along the ridge axis.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N28W, and continues
SW to near 22N51W. Some shower activity could be associated with
the frontal boundary, forecast to move eastward across the
eastern Atlantic while gradually dissipating during the weekend.
High pressure of 1020 mb located W of the Canary Islands near
29N21w dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong S winds will prevail offshore
Florida and N of the Bahamas through tonight ahead of a cold
front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast early Sat.
Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this
weekend ahead of the front, remaining north of 29N as the surface
ridge settles along 24N.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net