[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Seas of 12 to 17 ft in
long period N swell continue to affect the waters N of 26N and E
of 55W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted elsewhere E of 60W. Seas are
forecast to gradually subside to less than 12 ft by Fri night.
However, another swell event will enter the forecast waters by
Sat afternoon with seas building to 12 to 18 ft N of 27N and E of
50W. As this swell event shifts E of 35W by Sun evening, a third
swell event will reach the forecast region with seas in the 12
to 16 ft range propagating across the waters N of 29N between 45W
and 62W. These swell events are the result of deepening low
pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean N of
the forecast area.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support strong trades
across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds will pulse to
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will
build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia afterwards.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong SE to S winds will
increase to strong to near-gale force this evening, ahead of a
cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri
night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent
gusts to gale force, will precede the front across the north-
central Gulf tonight, and eastern Gulf late tonight through Fri
morning. Near gale force NW winds are expected behind the front
over the NW Gulf tonight. Expect minimal gale force NW to N winds
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should
subside by Sat. Seas will build to 9 to 12 ft with the southerly
flow ahead of the front by Fri morning. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are
expected in the wake of the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W then continues southwestward to near
the Equator at 25W. The ITCZ axis is S of the Equator from 00N25W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W where some convective activity
is noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 03N to 06N between 13W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE
Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds across the
western Gulf with seas of 6 to 9 ft, and moderate to fresh SE to
S winds across the eastern Gulf with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except
seas of 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters W of Florida.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the Gulf region tonight
with increasing winds and building seas on either side of the
front. Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia
tonight. Please read the Special Features section for more details.

Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean, and over the western
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba, where gentle winds are
noted. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean and 6
to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere,
except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail.
Similar sea heights are in the Windward Passage building to 4 ft
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across
the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The
San Juan Doppler radar shows some of these showers moving across
the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north
of the area and the Colombian low will support strong trades
across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds will pulse to
gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Strong to near-
gale SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat
morning, spreading across the northwestern Caribbean through the
Yucatan Channel tonight through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting
these marine conditions.

High pressure of 1019 mb centered east of Bermuda near 32N59W has
a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic, the Bahamas
and the state of Florida. Moderate SW winds are on the western
periphery of the ridge near NE Florida while moderate E winds and
just of Hispaniola on the south side of the ridge. A cold front
enters the forecast waters near 31N36W and extends SW to near
24N48W where it becomes stationary 22N70W. Some shower activity
is observed ahead of the front , mainly N of 25N between the
front and 30W. E of the front a 1021 mb high pressure is over the
Canary Islands and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region. Seas in excess of 8 ft are propagating across
most of the waters E of 65W. For more information, please see the
Special Features section. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail W of 65W
with the exception of 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of E
Florida and in the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging prevails across
the area, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. Southerly
winds will increase to fresh tonight east of Florida, and become
strong Fri through Fri night ahead of a cold front forecast to
exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night. Afterward, fresh to
strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend, remaining
north of 29N as an east-west oriented surface ridge settles along
24/25N.

$$
GR
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